What’s the value of a running back in today’s pass-obsessed NFL?

I’m not sure, but let’s at least measure their production better.

The 2018 NFL season has been defined by offense. More specifically, it’s been defined by a passing renaissance. Teams are throwing the ball more than ever before, and the correlation between passes and points has never been more clear.

It was strange, then, that a couple of months into the season, the favorite in the race for the league’s Most Valuable Player appeared to be ... a running back. The Rams’ Todd Gurley was generating all sorts of buzz after scoring 14 touchdowns in Los Angeles’ first seven games, and since we are a fantasy football-based society, his fantasy value distracted us from the fact that, at this point, there is virtually no reason a running back could ever truly be considered the most valuable player in a league.

That talk has died down, of course. Gurley has averaged only 66 rushing yards per game over the last month, and after starting the season 11-1, the Rams have lost back-to-back games. But his mere MVP candidacy proved that we really have no idea how to properly measure an RB’s value at the moment.

We should at least measure their stats correctly, though.

In recent weeks, I’ve drawn reference to what I call “intended touches,” or combined rushes and targets. I measured the production of a bountiful crop of rookie running backs that way, and last week, I noted how productive the Chargers’ backfield has been in this regard.

This isn’t anything particularly innovative, of course. But in a league in which an RB’s value in the passing game is increasingly important, it’s the first step toward establishing true value.

It’s also an interesting way of figuring out which offenses are adhering to league trends, and which are stuck in 1994.

As we head into week 16 of the season, 10 backs have rushed the ball at least 200 times. Of those 10, five have also been targeted at least 67 times (Gurley, Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott, Arizona’s David Johnson, the Giants’ Saquon Barkley, and Pittsburgh’s James Conner), while four have been targeted 25 or fewer times (Washington’s Adrian Peterson, Chicago’s Jordan Howard, Tampa Bay’s Peyton Barber, and Seattle’s Chris Carson). Only one (Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon, with 207 carries and 52 targets) is in between.

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That’s pretty stark. And while the Bears have countered Howard’s old-schoolness by using Tarik Cohen in an extremely new-school way (88 carries, 87 targets), Washington and Seattle are among the league leaders in retroactive offensive thinking this fall. At eighth in Offensive DVOA, the Seahawks are proving that zigging when everyone else zags fan provide some value. At 28th, Washington is doing the opposite.

Either way, let’s look at what intended touches tell us about running back production in the year of the quarterback.

Here’s a variety of stats for the leagues’ workhorses, AKA the 38 backs with at least 150 intended touches this season.

Looking at backs in this way immediately enhances the value of guys like the Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey and the Saints’ Alvin Kamara, who are 11th and 13th, respectively, in total carries but fourth and sixth in intended touches. McCaffrey is obviously having a solid year running the football; he’s on pace for more than 1,100 rushing yards, after all. But he’s also on pace for nearly 900 receiving yards and has been targeted with 110 passes through 14 games.

New England’s James White (114), Barkley (110), and Kamara (99) have also passed the 95-target mark so far. With 82 carries, White has been used far more as a receiver than a rusher. But he’s still on pace for nearly 225 intended touches and 1,200 combined yards.

Above, I included a few different stats for estimating each back’s worth. Simply looking at yards per intended touch is a pretty good starting point and tells us that players like Melvin Gordon (5.9), McCaffrey (5.8), Barkley (5.5), and Gurley (5.4) have been among the league’s best backs. (It also pretty clearly emphasizes how players like Carlos Hyde, LeSean McCoy, and Howard have struggled to provide value. Howard has gained 219 fewer yards in 237 intended touches than Cohen has gained in 175.)

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I also included an efficiency stat and an explosiveness stat, however, because one back’s value is not another’s.

The league’s success rate tends to hover around 41 percent or so in a given year, and despite the passing renaissance, 2018 is no different. Of the 38 backs with at least 150 intended touches, only 14 have created a success rate* at 42 percent or higher, which reminds us that while the NFL’s offensive proficiency has improved, efficiency still has yet to be optimized.

* I define success rate as the percentage of plays that gain at least 50 percent of necessary yards on first down, 70 percent on second, or 100 percent on third or fourth. This is a reasonably common measure, though definitions vary considerably. Consider it an on-base percentage for football.

You’ll notice something pretty quickly when you look at the 14 efficient backs: most of them play for damn good offenses:

Top 15 high-usage (150-plus intended touches) NFL running backs by success rate:

1. Aaron Jones (Packers): 49 percent
2. Gurley (Rams): 48 percent
3. Kamara (Saints): 47 percent
4. McCaffrey (Panthers): 45 percent
5. Cohen (Bears): 45 percent
6. Austin Ekeler (Chargers): 44 percent
7. Kareem Hunt (Chiefs, until recently): 44 percent
8. White (Patriots): 43 percent
9. Gordon (Chargers): 43 percent
10. Kerryon Johnson (Lions): 43 percent
11. Phillip Lindsay (Broncos): 42 percent
12. Mixon (Bengals): 42 percent
13. Sony Michel (Patriots): 42 percent
14. Marlon Mack (Colts): 42 percent
15. Carson (Seahawks): 41 percent

Eight of the top nine backs on this list play for offenses ranked ninth or better in Offensive DVOA, as do 10 of the top 15. The only bad offenses accounted for here are Chicago’s (Cohen’s production is offset by Howard’s lack thereof) and Detroit’s, where Johnson’s production has been mitigated by the fact that Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount have combined for 245 intended touches and a ghastly 33 percent success rate.

Efficiency is the most reliable and predictable aspect of one’s production, but explosiveness, though more random, is fun and useful, too. So I also included a measure called Yards Per Success. That isolates one’s explosiveness by looking only at your production on what are deemed successful plays.

Using yards per success next to success rate, we quickly get an idea of whose primary value comes from efficiency and who are your all-or-nothing home run hitters.

If success rate is your on-base percentage and yards per success is your slugging percentage, just call Saquon Barkley the NFL’s Adam Dunn. His 33 percent success rate is eighth-worst among 150-touch backs, but his 13.3 yards per success are nearly a full yard ahead of second-place Cohen. He doesn’t read blocks as well as he needs to yet, and his offensive line doesn’t necessarily give him all the blocks he needs yet, but when he gets into the open field, he is outright dynamite.

He is exactly what anyone who watched him play in college predicted him to be, in other words.

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Other all-or-nothing backs of note:

• Atlanta’s Tevin Coleman (36 percent rate, 12.3 yards per success)
• San Francisco’s Matt Breida (40 percent, 11.9 yards)
• Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (39 percent, 11.5 yards)
• The Jets’ Isaiah Crowell (31 percent, 11.2 yards)
• Washington’s Peterson (34 percent, 11.0 yards ... it’s amazing what a random, 90-yard touchdown run can do for your explosiveness averages, especially when you don’t generate many successes)

While we’re in a list-making mood, here are some backs that have provided underrated value and have probably earned more touches than they have yet received:

• Oakland’s Jalen Richard: 122 intended touches, 6.5 yards per IT, 45 percent success rate, 11.2 yards per success
• Cleveland’s Duke Johnson: 86 intended touches, 6.3 yards per IT, 43 percent success rate, 11.6 yards per success
• KC’s Spencer Ware: 76 intended touches, 6.2 yards per IT, 42 percent success rate, 11.8 yards per success
• Denver’s Devontae Booker: 65 intended touches, 5.9 yards per IT, 40 percent success rate, 10.9 yards per success
• Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Samuels: 60 intended touches (and growing), 5.8 yards per IT, 46 percent success rate, 10.1 yards per success

And two hilariously extreme backs:

• The Rams’ Malcolm Brown: 50 intended touches, 5.3 yards per IT, 58 percent success rate, 7.9 yards per success
• Seattle’s Rashaad Penny: 93 intended touches, 5.3 yards per IT, 29 percent success rate, 12.9 yards per success

Same average yards per touch, drastically different methods of production. Penny’s all-or-nothing production, by the way, was also not a surprise. Like Barkley, he had only decent efficiency in college but otherworldly explosiveness. (Samuels’ efficiency: also not surprising.)

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One last question: if we’re basically creating position-less stats for running backs, should we do the same for (primarily) pass catchers? Because here are the 25 wideouts and tight ends with at least 100 intended touches. It’s hard not to notice just how much more efficient and explosive their production is. Once again, NFL offenses have been more proficient this year ... but we’re not to the optimization point yet.

Julio Jones has more combined rushing and receiving yards than all but four running backs, and in half the touches. With his 6’3, 220-pound frame, how many touches do you figure Jones can handle?

Whatever that number is, give it to him.

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