Rookie contract hero: Chris Jones, plague upon quarterbacks, should have been a Pro Bowler

Jones didn’t make the Pro Bowl. He’s gonna cash in anyway.

When the NFL’s first attempt at the 2019 Pro Bowl rosters dropped Tuesday evening, there were several big names left off the list. Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Russell Wilson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all saw impressive seasons overlooked when it came to sports’ most meaningless all-star game.

But no one on the list may have been a bigger omission than the man keeping the Chiefs defense together in 2018 — defensive lineman Chris Jones.

Jones ability to collapse pockets and shuffle blockers across the trenches has been the balm that’s soothed Kansas City’s aching linebacking corps and secondary this fall. The third-year lineman has wrought havoc up front, recording 14 sacks in 14 games (fifth in the NFL) as well as 17 tackles for loss (tied for fourth). His ability to create negative plays gives a stretched-thin defense a chance to get the stops that allow Patrick Mahomes’ offense to take over, giving Kansas City the latitude to run out to an 11-3 record this fall.

That Kansas City defense could be why he curried little favor with Pro Bowl voters, however. The Chiefs rank 28th in the league in points allowed and have given up more yards than anyone but the Bengals in 2018. And while well-earned praise has been heaped upon his team’s offensive stars, a top-heavy defense’s struggles has left Jones’ play on the field greatly outgaining his fame off it.

But that shouldn’t last long.

Jones always had this talent, but the Chiefs brought it to life

Jones, at 6’6 and 310 pounds, was always going to get a shot at the NFL. The question was just whether he would ever put his prodigious blend of size, strength, and athleticism together to be a star. The five-star recruit’s commitment to Mississippi State was a bit of a coup for Dan Mullen, but Jones’ tenure with the Bulldogs didn’t live up to the hype; he recorded only 18 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in 42 NCAA games, making zero All-SEC teams in the process.

That lack of production couldn’t throw NFL scouts off his trail. He somewhat surprisingly declared for the draft after his junior season hoping to turn his potential into a spot in the first round. And then this happened.

Jones biffed his 40-yard dash at the Combine so badly it had to be censored. You can’t search for his workout results without his penis coming up.

This, honestly, may have been a boon for Jones.

His Combine numbers were concerning for a player without a background of consistent play at the college level to fall back on. He failed to rank among the top 15 defensive lineman prospects in any of the drills in Indianapolis that weekend.

Even so, Kansas City saw something in Jones, making him the 37th pick of the 2016 Draft. He’d start 18 games his first two seasons, giving his team a solid performance along the way. But those two years under Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Bob Sutton didn’t just prove there was NFL talent behind his prominent dong — they were building one of the league’s most dominant defensive linemen in the process.

Kansas City needed someone to step up in 2018, and Jones answered the call

As previously noted, this year’s Chiefs defense has faced its share of struggles, though a quick-strike offense is making the club’s league-wide ranks appear much worse than things are at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City ranks 24th in the league in yards allowed per play and 24th in time of possession, two factors that have left a shallow unit gassed and vulnerable late in games — as Week 15’s come-from-ahead loss to the Chargers proves.

That’s left a vacuum of big plays for the Chiefs’ defense, and Jones has been happy to fill it. His combination of strength and leverage allows him to operate at a level only J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald have been able to bring to the interior of the defensive line this fall. He attacks gaps with ferocity and a powerful burst, breaking into the backfield and creating a general sense of dread in the pocket.

Much of his repertoire is based on that power. Jones is able to churn through one-on-one matchups even when he’s not the low man like he’s powered by a V-8 engine. While scouts may have been worried about his effort on a play-by-play basis, his ability to use raw power to overwhelm linemen has been a testament to his ability to turn potential into production.

Jones moves aren’t refined, but he’s talented enough to make a simple sidestep effective against teams who dare not to double team him. And you can line him up on the other side of the line, force him to square off with an All-Pro, hold him, and he’ll still turn your quarterback into a less worldly Flat Stanley.

If Jones can’t clean up the chaos he creates, the Chiefs still benefit. Linebacker Dee Ford has already set a career high in sacks with 11.5, in part by taking advantage of the holes Jones creates. His 27 QB hits are 10 more than his previous best — and he’s still got two games left in the season. Justin Houston, who has battled injury this fall, has 3.5 sacks in his last four games.

When it comes to the biggest games of the season, Jones has consistently been the Chiefs’ top performer. He’s been important enough, Pro Bowl snub aside, to be the AFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for November.

Defensive Players of the Month (November):

AFC: @Chiefs DL @stonecoldjones_
NFC: @ChicagoBears S @EJackson_4 pic.twitter.com/tM7fSwhbj9
— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2018

The Chiefs may not have a world-beating defense, but they’re sure as hell scary for opposing quarterbacks. And Jones’ development in Kansas City has been enough to make some experts reconsider the importance of the 40-yard dash altogether.

What’s Jones going to cost the Chiefs in 2019?

Jones’ status as a second round pick means his rookie contract will expire after next season without the expensive team option his first round peers will have. That puts Kansas City in a tricky spot for 2019; they can ensure Jones will continue to provide a pass rushing presence along the defensive line with an expensive extension next spring, but that would also lock up somewhere between $50 and $55 million in cap space on just three defensive players next season — Jones, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry.

If the Chiefs want to be frugal and keep some extra cap space available for an impact free agent next offseason, they could wait to extend Jones. Houston and Berry would see their cap hits drop from $37.6 million to $32.5 million — not a massive drop, but enough extra space to retain Jones and lure a valuable veteran, like say a useful dual-threat tailback, onto the cap sheet with the space created.

Waiting to sign Jones has an immediate financial benefit, but it also carries the risk that he’d be willing to play out the final year of his contract and test the waters in free agency. Pass rushers are the highest-paid non-quarterback position in the NFL, so even after a down year he’d have his choice of suitors and big money contracts. The choice for the Chiefs boils down to whether they want to lock Jones up early at the risk of suffocating their cap space, or retain some financial flexibility for 2019 while taking the chance a stud pass rusher leaves in free agency in 2020.

Of course, they’ll have to make a similar decision with Tyreek Hill, whose contract expires the same time Jones’ does. These are good problems to have.

The reason Kansas City has been able to afford a handful of massive contracts has been thanks to the outsized play of their rookie contract heroes. We already noted how Patrick Mahomes, Hill, and the since-released Kareem Hunt are giving the team approximately $93 million worth of production over two years while eating up a little more than $11 million in cap space.

Jones is taking up a shade under $1.7 million in room in 2018. For that low price, he’s giving the Chiefs top five production as a 3-4 defensive end — performance that would correspond to something like $16 million in annual salary this fall. You can fit Berry’s entire salary into the extra value created by Jones’ pass rushing up front.

When the bill comes due on Jones, it’s going to cost more than $16 million per year. The good news for the Chiefs is next year’s salary cap is set to jump significantly from $177 million per team to between $187 and $191 million. The bad news is Jones’ agent knows this too, and he’s going to want to make sure his client is one of the highest paid defenders of all time as a result.

If the Chiefs extend Jones in 2019, that could leave the club holding the bag for a five year, $85.5 million extension with $37.5 million guaranteed— a deal commensurate with the one Kawann Short landed with the Panthers after playing out a year under the franchise tag. A free agent deal in 2020 could like like five years and $94.5 million, with $41 million locked in — an added expense given another year of rising salary caps and competition from other teams looking to land a premier pass rusher.

Jones will have to prove he’s not just a one-year wonder and is worth that find of outlay, but his pass rushing from the interior of the defensive line is a rare skill reserved for players who wind up winning Defensive Player of the Year honors. That’s worth a near nine-figure payout — even if it doesn’t come with a trip to the Pro Bowl.

Other rookie contract studs who upped their value in Week 15:

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (294 passing yards, 2 TD in win over Jets)

Derrick Henry, RB, Titans (170 rush yards, 2 TD in win over Giants)

Marlon Mack, RB, Colts (139 rush yards, 2 TD in win over Cowboys)

Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings (136 rush yards, 2 TD in win over Dolphins)

DeForest Buckner, DL, 49ers (11 tackles, 2 sacks in win over Seahawks)

Jabrill Peppers, S, Browns (6 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception in win over Broncos)