12 realistic 2018 NFL MVP candidates

Is Drew Brees finally going to claim his place among the immortals?

Drew Brees took another major step toward his first regular season MVP award, and it came at the expense of the reigning NFL champions.

The veteran quarterback carved up the Eagles in a Week 11 rout, throwing for 363 yards, four touchdowns and, at one point, torching Malcolm Jenkins so badly he’d flip off former coach Sean Payton seconds afterward. He’s thrown 11 touchdown passes the past three weeks, toppling the Rams, Bengals, and Eagles in the process. As a result, he’s now supplanted Patrick Mahomes atop the list of betting favorites to win the award.

Mahomes, who had previously been a -150 favorite, didn’t have as fun a week. His Chiefs were on the losing side of one of the greatest games in regular season history, falling to the Rams in a 54-51 shootout. Mahomes had, statistically, the most catastrophic performance of his career. The second-year passer fumbled twice, was intercepted three times, allowed Samson Ebukamto ride him into the end zone, and even got clubbed right in the face by a typically aggressive Ndamukong Suh for his troubles.

But he also threw for 478 yards and six touchdowns, so let’s not strip his name from the list of candidates just yet.

2018 NFL MVP odds

A lot of names on this list are either people we’d like to see win it and/or truly deserving names, but we all know that only goes so far when it comes to the actual voters this spring. So before we dig into a closer look at the candidates, let’s make a quick scan of the odds.

These are the top 10 from OddsShark, and were last updated prior to Week 12.

Drew Brees: -300
Patrick Mahomes: +200
Jared Goff: +1200
Todd Gurley: +1400
Andrew Luck: +2000
Tom Brady: +2800
Ben Roethlisberger: +4000
Philip Rivers: +4000
Aaron Rodgers:+5000
Alvin Kamara: +5000

Meet the MVP candidates

Now, let’s look at the candidates — starting with a pair of playmakers from one of the league’s top teams.

The Saints

Drew Brees, QB, Saints

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Brees is currently setting or on pace to set career bests in completion rate (76.9%), touchdown rate (7.5%), interception rate (0.3%), and yards per pass attempt (8.9). His 126.9 passer rating would be the best the NFL has ever seen by more than four points. The fact he’s doing this at all is amazing. The fact he’s doing it all two months before he’ll turn 40 years old is borderline unbelievable.

Kamara only had one catch last week, but it was the 37-yard touchdown pass that briefly turned Jenkins into Lewis Black’s character from Inside Out.

He also had 71 rushing yards on 13 carries. He’s not going to win the MVP award, but as long as he remains awesome he’ll keep his spot on the list.

The Rams’ three-headed monster

Jared Goff, QB, Rams

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

Aaron Donald, DT, Rams

Goff was masterful Monday, leading the game-winning drive against the Chiefs by leading his team 75 yards in just 54 seconds and capping it with a picture-perfect strike to tight end Gerald Everett.

While his two fumbles were problematic, he finished his day with 413 passing yards and four touchdowns. He’s doing work to ensure this year’s MVP race doesn’t boil down to a Brees-Mahomes affair.

Donald continued his assault on opposing QBs by taking Mahomes down twice on Monday, forcing a pair of fumbles that led to 14 Rams points. He’s on pace for 21 sacks, which would make him a near lock for DPOY honors for a second straight season. It would typically make him an outside MVP candidate as well — but with this year’s crop of quarterbacks, it’ll be tough for him to garner a vote even with a historic performance.

Gurley was ...fine. He had 94 total yards on 16 touches but was mostly an afterthought on a night where linebacker Samson Ebukam scored two more touchdowns than he did. If he’s injured he didn’t mention it — and he wasn’t complaining about his usage, either.

The young gunslinger

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Mahomes’ problems controlling the ball contributed to his team’s downfall, but the fact Kansas City even hung with the Rams at all is thanks to his wizardry both in and out of the pocket. The young quarterback faced pressure through most of the evening, but frequently created extra time with short scrambles that allowed his receivers to break free and create big gains downfield.

Mahomes lost some of his edge in the MVP race, but that’s more a function of Drew Brees having another epic day while utterly dismantling the defending Super Bowl champions than Mahomes’ issues Monday night. The Chiefs’ wouldn’t reach their current stratosphere without him in the lineup, even if he’s now the quarterback of a two-loss team.

The older gunslingers

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks

Rodgers threw for 332 yards and two touchdowns Thursday night, but even that wasn’t enough to convince Mike McCarthy to put the game on his shoulders late in the fourth quarter. Green Bay faced fourth-and-2 with 4:20 on the clock from its own 33-yard line while trailing 27-24, but rather than give Rodgers a chance to gain two yards, McCarthy opted to punt the ball away.

The Packers didn’t see the ball again and fell to 4-5-1 as a result. Rodgers is squeezing every drop he can out of a starting wide receiver lineup that’s typically paired Davante Adams with some combination of Day 3 draft picks Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. McCarthy and some combination of the fates are conspiring to ensure that effort goes to waste by the time Week 17 comes to a close.

Wilson earns his way back onto the list thanks to a quietly efficient evening of beating Rodgers. He’s got what was supposed to be a rebuilding Seahawks team on the periphery of the playoff hunt at 5-5, and he’s on pace to better last year’s NFL-best 34 touchdown passes. Remember when 34 touchdown passes was all you needed to lead the league? Simpler times, that 2017 season was.

The oldest gunslingers

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

Roethlisberger’s day started as badly as any non-Nathan Peterman quarterback’s day ever has. After two quarters in Jacksonville, he was responsible for -1.7 fantasy points. Eric Ebron and Tyler Boyd, each famously not quarterbacks, had higher quarterback ratings than he did on the afternoon.

But then the second half wore on and Roethlisberger rounded back into form, torching the Jaguars with deep balls and then hurling his 240-pound frame to the very tip of the end zone for a game-winning touchdown. He finished his day with 314 yards and three total touchdowns, negating a three-interception performance in the process.

Rivers lit up the Broncos for 401 passing yards, but his inexplicable throw-away while trying to salt away the clock after the two minute warning cost the Chargers dearly in a 23-22 defeat. Brady had the week off, which was good. The Titans defense, which made him look like Brock Osweiler in Week 10, proceeded to give up 297 yards and three touchdowns to Andrew Luck this weekend, which is bad.

The comeback kid

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

Watson had a two-interception performance against Washington in a game that will be remembered mostly as Alex Smith’s Joe Theismann moment (and not in a good way). Still, he’s won seven straight games. When the Texans’ offense is cooking, he’s the reason why.

The guys who fell off the list (for now)

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

Khalil Mack, DE, Bears

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles