13 home runs allowed led NL relief pitchers in 2018
Kenley Jansen in 2018 hasn’t been the dominant, lights out closer that we come to expect. But the Dodgers— including Jansen — all think he will get there in October.
On the surface Jansen’s season looks perfectly fine for a closer. He saved 38 games in 42 chances, and his ERA (3.01) and strikeout rate (28.4%) were all among the top third of MLB relievers. But those latter two were the worst numbers of Jansen’s career by far.
Jansen entered 2017 with a 2.08 career ERA, and his previous high was 2.85, back in his first full season in 2011. He struck out 40% of his career batters faced entering this year, and was never lower than 37.6%, before 2018 that is.
“No matter what’s gone on with Kenley, he’s one of the most important parts of our team. He’s our closer,” said pitcher Alex Wood. “We’re not going to win the World Series without him. Everybody in here believes in him.”
And why wouldn’t they believe in Jansen, who owns a 2.19 postseason ERA with 55 strikeouts in 37 innings. He’s been a workhorse, too. In 2017 Jansen appeared in 13 of the Dodgers’ 15 postseason contests, and in the last two playoffs he has pitched longer than an inning 10 times. This year, don’t expect Jansen to be pushed so hard.
“I would say that was pretty intense last year. I would take the under on the workload compared to last year,” manager Dave Roberts said. ”I do like the guys that we have around him in the pen. But to see him try to do what he did last year, that’s unlikely.”
Part of the concern surrounding Jansen is from his health scare in August, when he suffered an irregular heartbeat in Denver for the third time in seven seasons. He missed 10 days on the disabled list and will have surgery to correct the problem after the season.
“You can’t control life. Everything was going so well. The reality hits your mind and starts to slow you down,” Jansen said in August, shortly after returning. “You just have to get back to it.”
Since returning from the disabled list Jansen has a 5.71 ERA in 18 games with seven home runs allowed. That alone is more than he ever allowed in a full season, and his final total of 13 home runs given up was more than double his previous worst, and was more than any other National League relief pitcher.
Those home runs have come in bunches: four in a three-game stretch immediately back from the DL, and two more in Monday’s tiebreaker, after entering with a 5-0 lead.
The recent home runs haven’t affected the Dodgers’ confidence in Jansen.
“Kenley will be fine. He’s a pro, he knows what he’s doing. He’s got the experience,” third baseman Justin Turner said. “He’ll go out there and attack guys, and he’s the guy we want finishing games.”
Jansen throws his cutter 84% of the time, and opposing batters are hitting just .197 against it, per Brooks Baseball, but all 13 home runs allowed have come against that pitch, after allowing 15 total home runs on his cutter from 2015-17. Jansen’s cutter in 2018 has induced a 27% whiff rate, compared to 34% in the previous three years.
Jansen did perform better at Dodger Stadium this season for what it’s worth, with a 2.35 ERA and 44 strikeouts against only four walks, so opening at home could bode well for him, though eight of his 13 home runs allowed have come in Los Angeles. In two games against the Braves in 2018 Jansen retired all seven batters he faced, with two strikeouts.
The Dodgers will continue to run Jansen out there at every opportunity, sink or swim, deferring to his overall body of work rather than recent struggles.
“My confidence level is high, and my expectation for him to pitch well in this big series is the same, as it has been the last three years. He’s shown he can perform on this stage, in this environment,” Roberts said. “That’s what I’m going to pull from, his teammates are going to pull from, and I’m going to encourage him to pull from. I know that Kenley is a very confident player, so I don’t think that it’s a concern of his, and it’s not mine either.”