Retired NFL lineman and gambling man Geoff Schwartz has three NFL games he is loving on the NFL’s Week 5 schedule.
It’s Week 5 of the NFL season and I’m back with my favorite picks. I feel like I’m getting into a groove now that we have four weeks of data and film.
Titans at Bills +3.5
I know, I know, but hear my out. Home underdogs are 12-7 against the spread this season, and this is a great opportunity to bet against the public, as everyone will be on the Titans after they’ve beaten the Jaguars and Eagles in back to back weeks.
In general, the Titans have not been a good team against the spread on the road in the regular season since Marcus Mariota joined the team. True, he hasn’t started all of those games (missed three), but the Titans are 9-17 ATS in that time.
While the Bills are last in Football Outsiders overall DVOA, the 3-1 Titans are only 22nd. They don’t do anything remarkably well but have managed to pull out three wins, for which they deserve credit. But when a team doesn’t do anything remarkably well and they are on the road after two huge wins, it’s a great spot for a let down. And remember, the hook here is important. I get the Bills, with a field goal to spare, and the extra half point. Give me the fighting Josh Allen’s.
Giants at Carolina -6.5
I started the season on the Giants bandwagon. I bet on them the first two weeks thinking they’d turned the corner after a poor 2017. They have not.
Their offense is lacking any explosiveness at all, and now they head on the road to face a tough Panthers defense off a bye week. The Panthers have the best rushing attack in the league, and the Giants, and this is surprising, can’t stop the run. According to Football Outsiders, they are 29th against the run. I just don’t see how a Giants offense that’s not explosive and can’t stop the run is going into Carolina and keeping this game close.
Rams at Seahawks +7
The Rams are the most unstoppable team in the league right now. We know that; they know that. The Rams are going to win in Seattle, but I can’t pass up getting a home team with a touchdown to spare when it’s in one of the toughest places for teams to play. There will also be a revenge factor with the Rams winning in Seattle last season 42-0. Call me crazy, but I think the Seahawks keep this close.