The Raiders are going all-in — and might actually pull it off

Adding Antonio Brown and Trent Brown shows Gruden is ready to rebuild.

Jon Gruden is doing the damn thing. Armed with three first-round draft picks and sizable salary cap space, the former Raiders coach turned Monday Night Football analyst turned current Raiders coach is making his move to rebuild the franchise he spent 2018 tearing down.

It started inconspicuously. A January futures contract meant Nathan Peterman would be the latest Bills’ failure for Gruden to haphazardly rehabilitate. The club struck a deal to play one final season at the Oakland Coliseum. Daryl Worley and Jalen Richard were retained. Erik Harris signed an extension.

But then the Raiders kicked their offseason into high gear March 10. New general manager Mike Mayock engineered a deal to bring Antonio Brown to the West Coast for the low cost of third- and fifth-round picks. Two days later, they agreed to a contract that would make Patriots left tackle Trent Brown, possibly the best blocker on the free agent market, the highest-paid offensive lineman in league history. Lamarcus Joyner, worthy of the Rams’ franchise tag amidst a bevy of high-profile transactions last spring, followed not long after with a four-year deal.

Days later, Chargers receiver Tyrell Williams, one of the top deep threats available in a thin market for wideouts, decided to join the Browns as well.

Suddenly the trajectory of the Raiders has changed. Armed with the skeleton of an NFL roster and a boatload of assets, Gruden has begun to shape his franchise into the kind of team he’d feel comfortable lauding on Monday Night Football. Adding Antonio Brown addresses a major weakness in a depleted receiving corps. Signing Trent Brown shores up the biggest hole on what had been one of the league’s top offensive lines. Inking Joyner and keeping Johnathan Hankins in the fold gives an overwhelmed defense a pair of veteran playmakers to pave a foundation.

Gruden isn’t close to finished, either. While his haul of draft picks will infuse the Oakland roster with young talent, he’s also got an estimated $30(ish) million still to be spent in free agency, even after megadeals for Joyner and his pair of Browns.

What comes next?

Gruden and Mayock have to balance the needs they can address in this year’s draft vs. the ones that can be fixed with veteran free agents. With four selections in the first 35 picks of 2019’s defense-heavy draft, that pair will have its pick of players who can make an instant difference while improving the team’s inept pass rush and porous passing defense.

That’s good, because the Raiders were impressively bad on that side of the ball in 2018.

Our latest mock draft has them selecting Alabama tackle Quinnen Williams and Washington cornerback Byron Murphy with their first two picks before pivoting to some tailback help with Josh Jacobs. But there’s a chance Gruden and Mayock go all defense with their early selections before taking on a deep class of receivers and running backs on Days 2 and 3 to pad out their roster.

There’s also the chance Gruden uses those extra draft picks to take a wild swing at the top of the first round. Oakland is reportedly enamored with Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, who could be available at No. 4 if the Cardinals decide not to select him with the first pick of the draft. That would give Gruden a chance to showcase his quarterback-whispering chops while developing an exciting young prospect and casting off the franchise quarterback from a past regime, Derek Carr.

That scenario is a bit of a stretch. Still, trading former Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack seemed like a longshot until it wasn’t. Gruden!

There are plenty of other solid defenders available in free agency, should Gruden like this year’s crop of debuting playmakers. That includes an embarrassment of riches at safety, where Oakland could use successors to the aging duo of Marcus Gilchrist and Reggie Nelson. Signing Joyner is a major upgrade, but a swollen market of veteran defensive backs means the Raiders could sign another starting talent at a relative discount.

There’s a greater need now at linebacker, where 2018 undrafted free agent Jason Cabinda and 2017 fifth-round pick Marquel Lee could each stand to be upgraded. With oodles of cash to spend, Gruden could push that pair to rotational duty and replace them with someone like Justin Houston or an equally impressive haul of defenders.

Who could be the next victim of Gruden’s ongoing purge?

Gruden’s first year on the job saw several players leave Oakland via cut or trade. Khalil Mack turned the Bears into a playoff team. Amari Cooper did the same for the Cowboys. 2017 second-round pick Obi Melifonwu was released before signing with the Patriots and earning a Super Bowl ring as a bit player in 2018.

That deluge could continue this spring. The Trent Brown signing effectively pauses Kolton Miller’s service in Oakland. The 2018 first-round pick had started 16 games at left tackle despite nagging injuries and looked every bit the part of an overwhelmed rookie. Now his spot has been usurped by the highest-paid offensive lineman of all time, and he’s out of work until soon-to-be 36-year-oldDonald Penn, a Pro Bowler in 2017, decides to hang up his cleats or gets the boot.

That’s Gruden’s way of telling the roster no one is safe — not even guys Gruden himself drafted less than a year ago. Miller was a bit of a reach in 2018, but he’s still a raw, talented prospect. With one move he’s been reduced to backup status and gone from “building block” to “potential trade bait.” Gruden’s been happy to demote or ship the top prospects and first-round draft picks of previous regimes out of town in the past; in 2019 he’s willing to shuffle his own handpicked guys out of the starting lineup and into uncertain roles.

A pair of bold free agent signings were major boons for incumbent quarterback Carr, but they also suggest he could be a victim of Gruden’s unpredictable plans. Although the five-year veteran is only two seasons removed from being an MVP candidate, those two years have been fairly underwhelming. He’s making a top-10 salary for top-20 production, but he’d still be a commodity in a league where Nick Foles can get $50 million or more guaranteed.

At the same time, the Foles signing puts any potential Carr trade into a predicament. Gruden likely wouldn’t part with his current quarterback before he was sure he had a replacement lined up in the draft. But the list of teams willing to pay fair value to acquire Carr will get shorter and shorter as passers like Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor, and likely-to-be-released QBs like Ryan Tannehill and Blake Bortles find new homes. Gruden and Mayock will have to walk a tightrope if they’re going to swap out Carr while gleaning full value for him — but Gruden was able to recoup the first-round pick he wanted for Amari Cooperwhen that seemed like a sucker’s bet, so you can’t rule anything out.

It seems unlikely the Raiders would trade away a player so soon after a legit MVP campaign — imagine the Rams selling off Jared Goff in 2021 — and Carr agent Drew Rosenhaus says it’s not going to happen.

Plus, adding the Browns seems tailored made to build around Carr, who is thrilled with the acquisitions.

The Raiders also doubled-down telling the world Carr is their franchise quarterback at this year’s combine.

Still.

Gruden.

There could be more paring on the offensive side, too. Neither Jordy Nelson nor Seth Roberts earned their salaries last season, and wideout depth is no longer a glaring issue after adding Brown and Williams. Roberts can be cut without any dead cap money and Nelson would leave only $1.8 million of his salary behind if he’s jettisoned. Nelson also reportedly bandied around the idea of retirement last fall, but playing for a more competitive Raiders team after a strong finish to 2018 (38 catches, 338 yards in his final five games) should help assuage some of his concerns. Roberts, however, might be looking for a new home this spring.

Update 3/14: Nelson was released by the club Thursday. Days after being paid a $3m roster bonus. These are still the Raiders, after all.

Karl Joseph, another former first-rounder who hit the trading block last year, is ostensibly still available as well — though his relatively low guaranteed 2019 salary makes him unlikely to be cut.

Gruden made a splash in 2018 for offloading veteran talent of his own while bringing in even older players like Nelson, Brandon LaFell, and Doug Martin. In 2019 he’s going in a different direction, building a new foundation that suits his version of the Raiders and can sell tickets for the club’s 2020 move to Las Vegas.

That boldness is what convinced owner Mark Davis to dish out $100 million to drag Gruden out of the announcing booth, and now it’s beginning to pay off. While Gruden’s table-setting isn’t nearly complete for the upcoming season, he’s already added an impressive centerpiece and some fine china by acquiring two very different but widely respected Browns and a solid, if overrated, safety in Joyner.

The question now is whether the rest of his additions will work in harmony with the big names he’s brought in and the smaller ones left behind in Oakland — and whether they can create any real change for a franchise that’s been more or less cursed since Gruden defeated it in Super Bowl XXXVII.