The 4 winners and 5 losers of the Joe Flacco trade

The Broncos replace Case Keenum with... a quarterback worse than Case Keenum?

There are few automatics in the NFL these days. The Patriots working their way to the AFC title game is one. Jon Gruden discarding talent like a troubled ship throwing off ballast seems like another. Marshawn Lynchbeing an endearing weirdo qualifies as well.

After the reported trade for Joe Flacco we can add Denver Broncos general manager John Elway swinging hard at questionable quarterback talent to the list as well.

Elway’s quest to find the quarterback who can do enough to allow his defense to win games landed on Flacco, whose time in Baltimore ran out thanks to the emergence of rookie passer Lamar Jackson in 2018. That made the Super Bowl XLVII MVP an affordable acquisition — it cost Denver only a fourth-round draft pick to add the 11-year veteran to his lineup.

But will it make the Broncos better? And who really won Wednesday’s trade?

Winner: Joe Flacco

Flacco’s time in Baltimore, at least as a starter, ran out somewhere in the midst of Jackson’s absurd 6-1 regular season run to close out the year. The Ravens turned their lack of targets from a bug into a feature by crushing opponents on the ground behind their new mobile quarterback, rebounding from a 4-5 start to claim the AFC North title.

Head coach John Harbaugh effectively trumpeted Flacco’s departure after his team’s Wild Card loss to the Chargers.

“Joe can still play,” Harbaugh said. “Joe’s going to have a market, a lot of teams are going to want Joe. Joe Flacco is a great talent, he’s a better person, he’s the best quarterback in the history of the Ravens … He’s going to be just fine.”

Flacco landed in a spot similar to the one he called home for the first 11 years of his career. He’ll play for a team known for its punishing defense where a caretaker quarterback can win an NFL championship, as Peyton Manning did in the final year of his career. He’ll have a solid running game led by Pro Bowl rookie tailback Phillip Lindsay. He’ll go from throwing passes to a declining Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead to a declining Emmanuel Sanders along with rising wideouts Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton.

There’s room for Flacco to turn around his fortunes in his new home. And Elway is betting he will, because otherwise ...

Loser: Denver Broncos

Well, this is troubling:

Ye gods. Flacco’s career was built on a dazzling and ultimately unsustainable 2012 postseason run that launched a thousand “is he elite?” memes. He’s been a decidedly below-average quarterback in the years since, a stretch in which the Ravens have only gone 42-41 in games he’s started. He may not offer the Broncos anything more than Case Keenum, 2018’s starter, would have. His numbers over the past four years say he won’t.

Elway is betting on Flacco’s playoff pedigree and a change of scenery. At 34 years old and with a regrettable recent history, that will be a long shot.

Winner, kinda: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens got something back in return for the greatest quarterback in franchise history, which is a win. They’re also going to have to absorb $16 million in dead cap space after trading him thanks in part to the three-year, $66 million extension he signed back in 2016. The move generates $10 million in overall cap savings while officially turning the offense over to Jackson, but it also takes a useful mentor and backup plan out of the equation. There’s more good than bad here, but this isn’t much of a needle-mover in either direction.

Loser: Case Keenum

Keenum was never supposed to be a long-term answer in Denver. Flacco’s arrival means he likely won’t get to see the second year of the two-year prove-it deal he earned after a breakthrough 2017 with the Vikings.

The journeyman quarterback led Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game one season ago, leading to an $18 million salary with the Broncos. But he was unable to thrive without Pat Shurmur and the Vikings’ talented group of receivers, regressing mightily as Denver went 6-10 and missed the postseason for the second straight season.

Cutting Keenum will save the Broncos $8 million in cap space, money they can use to pad out the roster after a disappointing 2018. That would throw the veteran quarterback back into the churning wash of free agency, where he’d likely be a high-value backup rather than a true No. 1 QB. Coincidentally, one of his better options will be in Baltimore, where Jackson’s penchant for running plays means the Ravens could use an experienced backup in case of injury.

Winner: the quarterback the Broncos select at the 2019 NFL Draft

Flacco was the epitome of professional after ceding his starting role to Jackson over the latter half of the 2018 season. He stepped out of the spotlight to offer guidance and downplayed any suggest of a professional rivalry between the two players at every opportunity.

“I don’t know if I’ve helped him too much,” Flacco said after Jackson’s first four games as a starter gave way to a 3-1 record. “The only things you can talk to him about are just letting the game come to him, be patient, maybe some of the things I’m [seeing] out there – just understanding some of the things that go through your head during the course of a football game, and just trying to settle him down and try to make him feel at ease.”

That calm mentoring will help whomever Elway targets as his quarterback of the future. It will also give Denver an experienced hand that prevents the club from having to start a rookie from Week 1 — though Keenum, who went through that exact same process with Jared Goff in Los Angeles, was a solid veteran presence as well. If the Broncos select a quarterback with the No. 10 pick of the 2019 draft, Elway knows he’ll have time to develop his young ward ... even if that didn’t work out so well with Paxton Lynch.

Loser: the quarterback the Broncos select at the 2019 NFL Draft

Elway struck gold with Manning, but the no doubt Hall of Famer is the exception to the rule when it comes to the Broncos’ recent quarterbacks. The other passers Elway has hand picked to either lead Denver to prosperity or take the reins in the future are:

• Brock Osweiler (drafted in the second round, 2012)
• Zac Dysert (drafted in the seventh round, 2013)
• Trevor Siemian (drafted in the seventh round, 2015)
• Paxton Lynch (traded up to draft in the first round, 2016)
• Chad Kelly (drafted with the final pick of the draft, 2017)
• Keenum (signed in 2018)

Some of those guys are seventh-round fliers, and Siemian outperformed expectations as a perfectly useful replacement player. Still, Elway’s track record as a developer of quarterbacks isn’t great. Could Duke’s Daniel Jones or Missouri’s Drew Lock be the next link on that ignominious chain?

Loser: John Elway

Elway’s spinning wheel of underwhelming quarterbacks landed on Flacco, who at this stage of his career is just Osweiler if he’d gotten his shins blown off a la Cotton Hill. Flacco bottomed out in 2017 thanks to one of the league’s least-impressive receiving corps, averaging a meager 5.7 yards per pass that season — by far the worst mark in the NFL.

While Flacco rebounded with a useful 2018, he’s a 34-year-old quarterback who hasn’t cracked an 85.0 passer rating in four years. Expecting him to bring more to the offense than Keenum is a curious decision. Trading away a draft asset to do so, even if it’s a fourth rounder, makes even less sense.

Picking Flacco and the three years remaining on his contract over Keenum and his one suggests this move is designed to be more than a one-year rental. This could be great news for the Broncos’ defense and a statement regarding how Elway views a not-especially-heralded 2019 quarterback class:

Still, if the Broncos wanted a stopgap quarterback solution, they would have had better options than a trade for Flacco.

Winner: John Elway

Acquiring Flacco means the greatest quarterback in Broncos franchise history remains ... John Elway.

At least for another few seasons.

Loser: Rahim Moore

Moore’s been out of the league since 2015, and he may want to avoid watching any Broncos games this fall. He’s about to see his blown coverage against Flacco in the 2012 AFC Divisional Round get replayed whenever anyone, from ESPN to CBS to the NFL Network, talks about Flacco’s move from Baltimore to Denver.

Gonna be a pretty fun week for Jacoby Jones, though.