The Patriots’ offense could have a huge day if Jared Goff and the Rams are unprepared for the spotlight.
The New England Patriots are modest 2.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams for Super Bowl 53. Money is coming in heavily on the Patriots, but recent history suggests the Rams could keep this one under the number.
That being said, it is entirely possible the Patriots are able to overwhelm a Rams team that lacks significant postseason experience. The Rams are a talented squad, and some would say more talented than the Patriots, but the Super Bowl is a whole different beast. If they stumble early, this game could get out of hand and lead to a Patriots’ rout.
If you think that is the case, there are numerous ways you can cash in beyond just the point spread. There are hundreds of prop bets to consider for Super Bowl 53. We’ll hear plenty about the coin flip or the national anthem or the halftime show betting options, but if you want to focus on football, here are prop bets to consider if you think the Patriots are going to roll to their sixth Lombardi Trophy. The odds are from Betonline.ag, unless otherwise stated.
MVP
Quarterbacks have won the MVP award 29 times in 52 Super Bowls. Tom Brady is the safe play, and while his +140 (7-5) odds won’t win you a lot of money, sometimes the square play is the way to go.
If you want to find some value, Rob Gronkowski at 50-1 is an intriguing bet. Six pass catchers (all wide receivers) have taken home the MVP award, and in fact, from 2005 to 2009, three receivers won the award. Gronk was targeted a season-high 11 times in the AFC Championship Game, so he could be a guy Brady is looking to on Sunday.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff did a decent job protecting the ball, but if this game goes south for the Rams, I’d jump all over him throwing the first interception of the game. At BetOnline, he is installed at -145, while at Bovada you can get better odds at -130. On the other side of things, both sportsbooks have Brady installed at -130 to throw the first touchdown pass.
Related to Brady, you’d want to jump all over the first half overs and consider second half unders in the case of a blowout. The over/under is 7.5 yards for distance of his first pass, 11.5 for first half completions, 0.5 for first half interceptions, and 122.5 for first half passing yards. If you think the game will be close, the under is your friend on completions and yards, but if you think the Patriots will send the Rams reeling early, jump on the overs.
Sony Michel odds
Michel has been a workhorse in the playoffs, rushing 53 times in two games, and averaging 4.6 yards per carry with five touchdowns. The Rams rank 28th in run defense efficiency, which opens the door for a big game for Michel. He is a +125 favorite to lead the Patriots in rushing yards, and like the Brady MVP odds, sometimes the square bet is the right bet.
The Patriots used Michel extensively in the first half of their first two playoff games, giving him 16 carries vs. the Chargers and 19 carries vs. the Chiefs. The over/under on first half rushing attempts for Michel is 9.5, with the under slightly favored. If the Patriots roll to victory, the numbers suggest it will be due to a big ground game. Michel could roll in the first half.
While Betonline.ag does not appear to have game-long Michel rushing odds yet, at Bovada you can bet on whether or not Michel will rush for more or less than 80.5 yards. If you see a blowout happening, Michel will be plenty busy. You can also get Michel combined rushing and passing yards at 84.5. In a blowout, it might be worth getting on the over there as well.
James Develin garbage time score
If the Patriots get a big lead, the second half could see the team empty out the depth chart. Fullback James Develin is a critical part of the Patriots’ ground game, but he is primarily a blocker. So primarily in fact that he had six carries in the regular season and two in the first two rounds of the postseason.
It is worth noting that of his six regular-season carries, four resulted in a touchdown. If the Patriots are blowing out LA and they end up down near the goal line in the second half, I would not be at all surprised to see Develin get a shot at the end zone. You can bet on Develin scoring the last Patriots touchdown at 25-1 odds, or the last touchdown by either team at 50-1 odds. They are slightly ridiculous prop bets, but in a blowout, it might make a little sense.
Chris Hogan deep ball
Julian Edelman will see the most passes among the Patriots’ receivers, but Chris Hogan is the better value on the deep ball. The over/under for longest reception is 20.5 yards at BetOnline.ag, and 19.5 at Bovada. The BetOnline under is the favorite at -135, while the Bovada over is a slim -110 favorite. Hogan’s game log suggests the over is an intriguing wager in either case. In seven games this season he has gone over 20 yards on his longest catch. Add in two games with a 20-yard reception, and it’s worth the gamble at Bovada.
James White catching passes
White is a PPR machine in fantasy football, but for Super Bowl 53 blowout purposes, focus on the first half of the game before the Patriots might be trying to burn the clock. For first half over/unders, you can get 2.5 receptions and 20.5 receiving yards. For firsts quarter over/unders, you can get 1.5 receptions and 9.5 yards. Frankly, all four are in play if this game gets out of hand early. The Rams defend running backs in the passing game fairly well, but if this game gets out of hand, White could be a busy man early on.
Turnovers
Turnover luck is very much a thing, but a Patriots’ blowout would likely be precipitated by one or more turnovers. Jared Goff throwing a couple picks would not be the most shocking development, providing a chance to wager on who will grab an interception. The Patriots favorites at Bovada to grab an interception are Stephon Gilmore (+425) and J.C. Jackson (+450). You can get Gilmore at +500 at BetOnline, but they don’t offer Jackson odds. Gilmore has one postseason interception, while Jackson was tied for second on the team with three interceptions.
Frankly, it’s worth betting a little on both since even if only one lands an interception, you’d cover the loss. If you really wanted to cover your bases, you can also bet on Jonathan Jones (+525) and Patrick Chung (+650) at Bovada. It limits your winnings to some extent to bet on all four, but it’s not the worst idea in the world!