Anthony Davis trade rumors, explained

Davis’ free agency is in 2020, but he’s requesting a trade now and New Orleans must act. Here’s why.

Editor’s note: This story was originally published on Dec. 21 and updated on Jan 28.

Shortly after LeBron James made his sales pitch for Anthony Davis to join him in Los Angeles in late December, 2018, Giannis Antetokounmpo advertised Milwaukee, too.

“Come to the Bucks, man,” Antetokounmpo said, according to NBA.com, smiling and shaking Davis’ hand after Milwaukee’s 123-115 win over New Orleans on Dec. 20. “Come to the Bucks.”

There was a reason players openly recruited Davis 18 months before his contract with the Pelicans expires. Now, we know: Davis has formally requested a trade from New Orleans, his agent told ESPN.

Let the sweepstakes begin.

Even with the request, New Orleans will hold firm. On Dec. 20, Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentryvociferously denied the franchise had any intention to trade Davis, ever.

“We’re not trading him,” he said. “I can say that to the world. We’re not gonna trade him, no matter what. That’s not an option. It doesn’t matter what anybody says or does. We’re not trading Anthony Davis.”

But the brutal truth of the matter is that they have little choice. Davis may still be under contract for 18 months, but he’s not staying past then. He’s essentially given New Orleans an 18-month head start to avoid losing him for nothing.

It’s not just the Lakers and Celtics who want Davis, though they may be the most popular potential destinations for the best big man in the NBA. Antetokounmpo’s sales pitch validates one thing we already knew: Everybody wants Anthony Davis. And everybody should. As such, Pelicans brass should do everything in its power to get some type of return for the best player in their history.

Here’s why Davis is on the market well before his contract ends.

New Orleans had one card to play: a quarter-billion dollars. And it failed

The Pelicans, and only the Pelicans, could have sign Davis to the richest contract in NBA history. But Davis’ agent, Rich Paul, said that he would not accept it.

What exactly is Davis turning down? A lot of money.

The salary cap is projected to rise to $118 million in the summer of 2020, and a player who re-signs with his own team gets an eight percent annual raise and a fifth year on his contract. Davis also meets the strict criteria for the Designated Player Veteran’s Extension, which qualifies him for 35 percent of the salary cap instead of 30.

From Larry Coon’s CBAFAQ, those criteria are:

The player was named to the All-NBA First, Second or Third team in the most recent season, or both of the two seasons that preceded the most recent season.

The player was named the Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or both of the two seasons that preceded the most recent season.

The player was named the NBA Most Valuable Player in any of the three most recent seasons.

Davis has been First Team All-NBA each of the past two seasons and is likely on his way for a third consecutive this year. He’s also a perennial front-runner for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year.

Because of his sustained excellence, New Orleans could have reward their superstar with a five-year, $241.7 million contract extension this summer. That deal would have a Year 1 salary of 41.3 million and a player option of a fifth year worth $56 million.

In conveying his intentions to leave now, Davis is sacrificing that cash in the name of winning.

If Davis leaves New Orleans as a free agent, he can only command a four-year deal, not five. He can only sign for 30 percent of the cap, not 35. And he can only receive a five percent annual raise, not eight. Davis’ contract, based on current cap estimates, would be worth four years, $152.5 million. That is the difference if he opts to leave his team in free agency: an extra year of security worth $89 million.

If the Pelicans trade him, he can no longer qualify for the designated player super max contract. Instead, Davis is eligible for 30 percent of the salary cap, not 35. That caps him out at a five-year contract extension worth $207.6 million. Still a ridiculous amount of money, but he leaves about $34 million on the table over the life of the deal by not re-signing in New Orleans.

Recent history was on New Orleans’ side, but that didn’t matter

No player had ever turned down a supermax contract extension.

• Gordon Haywarddid leave Utah to sign with Boston, but he wasn’t eligible for the super max because he missed on the criteria. He signed a four-year, $127.8 million contract with the Celtics, leaving a five-year, $172 million extension on the table with the Jazz.
• Paul George would have qualified for the super max had he stayed in Indiana one more year, but he forced a trade, and the Pacers dealt him to Oklahoma City. Instead, he signed a four-year deal worth $137 million when he could have signed for five years worth a) $177.6 million in OKC or b) $207 million in Indiana. He also passed on going to the Lakers for the same amount of money as he re-signed with Oklahoma City.
• The Bulls never made the super max offer to Jimmy Butler. Instead they traded him to Minnesota, who then traded him to Philly. San Antonio made the same decision with Kawhi Leonard, as did Sacramento with DeMarcus Cousins.
• Devin Booker threatened to leave Phoenix if they didn’t turn into a playoff team, but he signed a five-year, $158 million extension, and the Suns are still the worst team in the NBA. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic each signed five-year, $147 million extensions, and Karl-Anthony Towns agreed to the richest rookie extension of five years, $189 million.
• James Harden, Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook each signed supermax extensions with their respective teams.

That was the only way the Pelicans could keep Davis, and it didn’t work. So they have little choice but to trade him.

Davis doesn’t care about the money difference, so New Orleans won’t want to lose him for nothing. The Pelicans are now on borrowed time.

So where could he go? At this point, anywhere

But there are two teams in the lead: Boston and L.A. And by conveying his intentions now, Davis has hurt the chances for the former.

Davis has been linked to the Celtics for years. If he becomes a free agent, Boston has the best collection of trade assets on the market.

The Celtics, though, cannot trade for Davis until the summer because the collective bargaining agreement prevents teams from trading for more than one player that has signed a rookie scale extension. Kyrie Irving signed such an extension in 2015 before he was traded to the Celtics last summer. He will become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019. Boston has to re-sign him first before it can deal for Davis.

Once they do sign Irving to a new deal as expected, the Celtics are armed with talented young players in Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, and Jaylen Brown. They also own four first-round picks (Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, and their own) in the 2019 NBA Draft, and each of their first-rounders in the ensuing draft classes.

But Boston is out of the sweepstakes until that point, which gives the Lakers a major advantage.

Remember: James and Davis share Rich Paul as an agent —and what LeBron James wants, he often gets. The Lakers have Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart as enticing young players should Davis become available via trade. They also own each of their first-round picks.

L.A. is highly incentivized to offer the farm now before Boston can jump in. By announcing his intentions now, Davis’ team has given the Lakers a leg up. Still, it remains to be seen if New Orleans actually opens itself to trade offers now or waits until the summer when Boston and others can make a move.

Of course, any team can jump in and take a chance on trading for Davis without any promises for an extension.

Paul George desperately wanted to go to Los Angeles, but he was won over by Russell Westbrook and small-market Oklahoma City. Could Oklahoma City create a Big Three? You never know, but the Thunder will certainly try.

So will the Raptors, who could entice Davis with the prospect of playing with Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry in Toronto. Antetokounmpo and Davis could put the two most dominant players in the NBA on the same team.

The 76ers already made one blockbuster trade to bring in Jimmy Butler? Would they be willing to part with Ben Simmons to bring Davis to Philly?

Finally, there have been murmurs that the Warriors would try to sell Davis on their culture, too. If some combination of Durant, Klay Thompson, and/or Draymond Green leave in free agency, they could potentially make a run at The Brow.

The bottom line is that a blockbuster Davis trade was always possible and is now a near certainty since he’s formally requested a trade. Even though Davis is under contract with New Orleans until 2020, he will certainly leave in free agency two summers from now. The Pelicans must deal him to recoup some of his immense value.

After Antetokounmpo’s sales pitch, one thing is clear: when New Orleans decides to honor Davis’ request, they will have no shortage of potential suitors. They might not want to trade him, but this is why they must.