Retired NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz is back with his best bets for the Divisional Round of the 2019 NFL playoffs.
Off an excellent gambling Wild Card Weekend, I’m back for more in the Divisional Round. In the last 15 NFL playoff games, the underdogs are 14-1 against the spread in those contests. This is why the lines seem inflated this weekend. But don’t be worried, I have bets for y’all.
New Orleans Saints team total OVER (29.5 points)
Drew Brees started seven games in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season. In those games his offense averaged 37 points a game. That 37 average includes a 21-point game against the Browns in Week 2. The Saints are off a bye, healthy at offense line, and playing against an Eagles defense that’s starting their 13th defensive back. Yikes.
For whatever reason the Bears decided to not test the Eagles secondary tell the second half. Don’t expect that this Sunday afternoon with the Saints. Now, if we want to head all the way back to 2009 when the Saints were the No. 1 seed, they scored 45 points against the Arizona Cardinals in the dome. I think we will a similar output this weekend.
New England Patriots -4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Don’t bet against Tom Brady at home in the playoffs when the public is hammering the dog. According to my fine friends at the Action Network, it would be wise to bet the Patriots in this game. Since 2003, Tom Brady’s against the spread record when getting less than 40 percent of bets is 8-0-2 — covering by 9.1 points per game.
There are other reasons I like the Patriots here. The Chargers are the darlings of the NFL after beating the trendy Ravens. Everyone is high on them. And the praise is worthy. However, the Chargers head back on the road for the third straight week. LA->Den, LA ->Baltimore and now LA -> New England. That’s so much travel. That’s tough on a team.
The Patriots have the offensive line to block up the Chargers pass rush and if Brady is given the time, he can make plays. Dink and dunk is good enough when it happens over and over again. Lastly, the Chargers tried to Charger the game last weekend. They opened the second half with missed field goal, fumble and blocked punt. Do that against New England and you’re finished.
Indianapolis Colts team total OVER (26 points)
The Chiefs defense is bad. The Colts offense is good. The Colts offense can run the ball and the Chiefs can’t stop the run. The Chiefs best weapons on defense are their pass rushers. Well, the Colts have a top offensive line. I just don’t see how the Colts don’t light up the scoreboard. And, people might say the Chiefs have played well on defense at home. This is true. However, they’ve played almost no legit offenses at Arrowhead. The one offense, the Chargers’ third-rated offense, scored 29 points.
Dallas Cowboys +7.5 @ Los Angeles Rams
The Dallas Cowboys play a brand of football that carries well on the road. They run the football and play excellent defense. They are playing against a Rams defense with Aaron Donald and that’s it. Now, Donald can wreck the game himself, but the Cowboys can manage to run away from him. The Rams are 28th in rushing defense, according to Football Outsiders. Their defensive line is allowing 4.91 yards per running back carry. It’s not good. If the Cowboys run the ball, they limit chances for the Rams offense.
The last time we saw the Rams offense against an excellent defense they were in Chicago. They aren’t in Chicago this time around, but the Cowboys defense can still hammer the Rams and make it uncomfortable enough to cover this game.