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WVU’s latest disappointment sets up big 2019 questions

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The Camping World Bowl was basically the start of WVU’s 2019 season, and it didn’t create overwhelming optimism.

At some point during the first half of the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, ESPN’s Dave Flemming made reference to this almost seeming like West Virginia’s first game of 2019 as much as its last of 2018.

It wasn’t hard to see how you might think that way: star quarterback Will Grier, one of the top draft prospects at his position for 2019, sat out, giving next year’s presumptive starter, Miami transfer Jack Allison, his first go-round in the starting lineup. Freshman Trey Lowe III got some planned snaps as well. (While we’re noting astute announcer observations, color commentator Rod Gilmore noted that, with Allison having sat out most of the last two seasons, maintaining intensity and focus for the whole 60 minutes might be an issue. Hold that thought.)

No. 2 receiver Gary Jennings Jr. sat, too, and offensive lineman Yodny Cajuste, a starter for much of the last four seasons, missed the game with a leg injury. Plus, head coach Dana Holgorsen was back to coordinating the offense with former OC Jake Spavital having taken the Texas State head coaching job. And in an effort to begin rectifying some of the defensive ills of WVU’s last two seasons, defensive coordinator Tony Gibson was supposedly playing with some potential scheme changes to throw at Syracuse.

With WVU playing for 2019, then, and Syracuse still playing for a 10-win 2018, the result of the game itself probably wasn’t surprising.

WVU led 18-17 heading into the fourth quarter, but Allison, who started the game 12-for-22, completed only five of his last 13 passes with an interception, and the Orange went on a 17-0 run to win, 34-18.

The Mountaineers out-gained the Orange on a per-play basis (5.7 yards per play to 5.5) but played far less consistent ball and, depending on how you look at it, either finished 2018 at 8-4 or began 2019 at 0-1.

Considering what was expected of West Virginia this year, even into the middle of the season, 8-4 obviously feels pretty disappointing. The Mountaineers finished with three straight losses for the second year in a row and stumbled down a season’s home stretch for basically the fifth time in seven years. This particular stumble comes at an interesting time, as Holgorsen is supposedly angling for a contract extension.

You figure if both sides actually want to come to an agreement, they will, but still, the marriage probably isn’t as fresh and fruitful as either side wants it to be.

Assuming that stuff works out, we indeed got our first look at the 2019 Mountaineers on Friday night. What did we learn?

1. It’s not Jack Allison’s job just yet

Camping World Bowl - West Virginia v SyracusePhoto by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Like Grier, Allison is a former four-star prospect, having originally chosen Miami over Alabama, Missouri, UCF, and others. He transferred following the 2016 season, and it probably goes without saying that, considering their current QB situation, Miami fans wouldn’t have minded if he’d stayed.

Allison made some lovely throws, especially early in the game, but Syracuse was able to deduce what WVU wanted to do over time, and after scoring on three of their first five possessions, the Mountaineers scored just twice more the rest of the way. As you would guess from someone who hasn’t played a ton of real football of late, his pocket presence and fight-or-flight timing were a bit off.

There obviously wasn’t time to build a whole new offense for a whole new QB, and Allison was inaccurate at times, but he’ll now have the benefit of an entire offseason of prep. If he’s the guy for the job, he’ll likely be more prepared and comfortable when James Madison comes to town on August 31.

He’s going to have to hold off Lowe first, though.

Holgorsen clearly wasn’t comfortable giving the high-three-star freshman much to do with his first snaps — Lowe came onto the field early in the second quarter, rushed for nine yards, and threw two short passes for a net zero yards and a turnover on downs. (He also dropped a trick-play pass later in the quarter.)

It’s obvious that Allison begins the offseason ahead of Lowe, but considering WVU returns a lot more run personnel than pass, Lowe could catch up in the battle because of his legs if Holgorsen chooses to lean into team strengths a bit.

Backs Kennedy McKoy, Martell Pettaway, Leddie Brown, and Alec Sinkfield are all scheduled to return, and with Cajuste already out, nine of the 10 linemen from the Mountaineers’ bowl two-deep should be back, too. Center Matt Jones and guard Josh Sills have combined for 46 career starts.

The run worked reasonably well on Friday evening — McKoy carried most of the load, but the quartet combined for 27 carries and 151 yards, a 5.6-yard average admittedly plumped up by a 51-yarder from Pettaway. (Take out that one carry, and the average slips to 3.8.) But WVU had no idea what might work in the red zone, and it was the biggest difference in the game.

In 11 pass attempts inside Syracuse’s 25, Allison went 3-for-9 with two sacks. Net yardage: 25 yards. The run game stalled out, too, and despite generating seven scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent’s 40) to the Orange’s six, they scored only one touchdown to Cuse’s four. Funny how much of a difference that can make.

Still, red zone offense wasn’t a season-long issue, so we can’t assume it will be a problem moving forward. And besides, it’s hard to pin all the blame on the offense right now.

2. The defense doesn’t have enough play-makers

NCAA Football: Camping World Bowl-West Virginia vs SyracuseReinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Tony Gibson’s D did indeed hold Syracuse to 5.5 yards per play, below the Orange’s season average of 5.7. Granted, the red zone defense was abysmal, but it still wasn’t a horrid performance from this unit. But get things straight: WVU went 8-4 because of its defense.

The Mountaineers stumbled offensively in a 30-14 loss to Iowa State in October, but they scored a combined 97 points in losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. That’s not supposed to happen.

WVU finished the regular season sixth in Off. S&P+ and 81st in Def. S&P+ — last year, they were 26th and 96th, respectively. Gibson fielded top-40 defenses in both 2015 and 2016, but following a pretty big refresh of the depth chart in 2017, the results vanished.

Gibson’s aggression paid off for a while, and even last season, despite some glitches, they were 38th in success rate allowed. This year so far: 102nd.

Those inefficient ratings came despite a disruptive run defense. WVU came into the postseason ranked fourth in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line); linebackers David Long Jr. (the Big 12’s defensive player of the year) and JoVanni Stewart combined for 43 regular-season run stuffs, but WVU was still a ghastly 114th in rushing marginal efficiency allowed. So basically, any time a runner got past the line of scrimmage, he gained at least five or six yards. The pass rush, meanwhile: non-existent.

Long, a junior, has not yet decided whether he will return to Morgantown for his senior season or go pro. Stewart should be back either way, as should the Mountaineers’ best on-ball defender (cornerback Josh Norwood) and linebackers Dylan Tonkery and cornerback Derrek Pitts Jr., who combined for 9.5 TFLs, 11 run stuffs, and four passes defensed despite missing 13 games between them.

Still, if Long leaves, he takes WVU’s entire meager pass rush with him. And if the offense is less capable of bailing the defense out without Grier and senior receivers David Sills V and Jennings, it’s not hard to see that as problematic.

Holgorsen has plenty of time to add some potential play-makers via either recruiting or transfers — he has long been open to adding contributors from other schools, and it has paid off — but as things currently stand, the defense might not have the pieces to rebound, and the offense almost has nowhere to go but down, even if it’s still pretty effective. A new mini-era will begin in Morgantown next year, and there are as many questions as answers.


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