Davis’ free agency is in 2020, and he said he loves New Orleans. But the trade rumors will never go away. Here’s why.
Shortly after LeBron James made his sales pitch for Anthony Davis to join him in Los Angeles, Giannis Antetokounmpo advertised Milwaukee, too.
“Come to the Bucks, man,” Antetokounmpo said, according to NBA.com, smiling and shaking Davis’ hand after Milwaukee’s 123-115 win over New Orleans on Wednesday. “Come to the Bucks.”
This is the message every team’s best player will have for Davis, who can turn at least a dozen NBA franchises into championship contenders should he decide to join them. Davis’ free agency isn’t until 2020, but as the Pelicans look less and less like a playoff team — let alone a championship contender — his potential departure looms as a dark cloud over New Orleans.
Jrue Holiday thought it was only the Lakers and Celtics who wanted Davis, and they may be the most popular potential destinations for the best big man in the NBA. But Antetokounmpo’s sales pitch validates one thing we already knew: Everybody wants Anthony Davis.
And everybody should have the same energy as Antetokounmpo after beating the Pelicans this season. It’s hard to imagine a world where Davis stays with New Orleans, not with their inability to put tier 1 talent around him, not with their track record of two playoff appearances in the past five years, and not with huge markets like Los Angeles, New York and Boston jockeying for his services.
Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentryvociferously denied the franchise had any intention to trade Davis, ever.
“We’re not trading him,” he said. “I can say that to the world. We’re not gonna trade him, no matter what. That’s not an option. It doesn’t matter what anybody says or does. We’re not trading Anthony Davis.”
Davis, also aware of the gravity of the situation, said what he was supposed to say:
“I don’t really care,” he told ESPN. “Obviously, it’s cool to hear any high-caliber player say they want to play with me. But my job is to turn this team around. If we’re 15-17, that means I’m not doing my job.”
The brutal truth of the matter is all cards are on the table when it comes to a talent of Davis’ level. And if they even have some reason to believe he’ll leave on the open market, Pelicans brass should do everything in its power to get some type of return for the best player in their history.
New Orleans has one card to play: a quarter-billion dollars
The Pelicans, and only the Pelicans, can sign Davis to the richest contract in NBA history. The salary cap is projected to rise to $118 million in the summer of 2020, and a player who re-signs with his own team gets an eight percent annual raise and a fifth year on his contract. Davis also meets the strict criteria for the Designated Player Veteran’s Extension, which qualifies him for 35 percent of the salary cap instead of 30.
From Larry Coon’s CBAFAQ, those criteria are:
The player was named to the All-NBA First, Second or Third team in the most recent season, or both of the two seasons that preceded the most recent season.
The player was named the Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or both of the two seasons that preceded the most recent season.
The player was named the NBA Most Valuable Player in any of the three most recent seasons.
Davis has been First Team All-NBA each of the past two seasons and is likely on his way for a third consecutive this year. He’s also a perennial front-runner for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year.
Because of his sustained excellence, New Orleans can reward their superstar with a five-year, $241.7 million contract. That deal would have a Year 1 salary of 41.3 million and a player option of a fifth year worth $56 million.
It’s hard to turn that down, given the alternative.
- If Davis leaves New Orleans in free agency, he can only command a four-year deal, not five. He can only sign for 30 percent of the cap, not 35. And he can only receive a five percent annual raise, not eight. Davis’ contract, based on current cap estimates, would be worth four years, $152.5 million. That is the difference if he opts to leave his team in free agency: an extra year of security worth $89 million.
- If the Pelicans trade him, he can no longer qualify for the designated player super max contract. Instead, Davis is eligible for 30 percent of the salary cap, not 35. That caps him out at a five-year contract extension worth $207.6 million. Still a ridiculous amount of money, but he leaves about $34 million on the table over the life of the deal by not re-signing in New Orleans.
Recent history is also on New Orleans’ side
No player has ever turned down a supermax contract extension.
- Gordon Haywarddid leave Utah to sign with Boston, but he wasn’t eligible for the super max because he missed on the criteria. He signed a four-year, $127.8 million contract with the Celtics, leaving a five-year, $172 million extension on the table with the Jazz.
- Paul George would have qualified for the super max had he stayed in Indiana one more year, but he forced a trade, and the Pacers dealt him to Oklahoma City. Instead, he signed a four-year deal worth $137 million when he could have signed for five years worth a) $177.6 million in OKC or b) $207 million in Indiana. He also passed on going to the Lakers for the same amount of money as he re-signed with Oklahoma City.
- The Bulls never made the super max offer to Jimmy Butler. Instead they traded him to Minnesota, who then traded him to Philly. San Antonio made the same decision with Kawhi Leonard, as did Sacramento with DeMarcus Cousins.
- Devin Booker threatened to leave Phoenix if they didn’t turn into a playoff team, but he signed a five-year, $158 million extension, and the Suns are still the worst team in the NBA. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic each signed five-year, $147 million extensions, and Karl-Anthony Towns agreed to the richest rookie extension of five years, $189 million.
- James Harden, Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook each signed supermax extensions with their respective teams.
Davis is coming off of a five-year, $145.5 million contract. He’s made life-changing money as it is, but the Pelicans have a chance to make him filthy rich. If he’s already filthy rich, his next contract adds an additional five layers of filth to his bank account.
But that’s all the Pelicans have. If Davis doesn’t care about the money difference, New Orleans shouldn’t want to lose him for nothing
And that’s what The Athletic’s Sam Amick is reporting. Amick cites a source who says Davis doesn’t see the extra money “as a factor in his eventual decision.” If true, that is the biggest threat of Davis’ unrestricted free agency.
This is the first time The Brow actually has a decision on where he wants to spend the next four or five years of his career. Given the low level of team success he’s had in New Orleans, he should and will seriously consider his options on a new team.
The earliest the Pelicans can offer Davis his contract extension is in July of 2019. He can — and likely will — turn that offer down, then re-visit it in 2020. But if he turns that offer down, and there are no indications he plans on re-signing long-term, the Pelicans will be on borrowed time to seek a commitment from him before the NBA’s February trade deadline.
Davis has been linked to the Celtics for years. If he becomes a free agent, Boston will position itself to have max money to offer him.
The Celtics, though, cannot trade for Davis until the summer because the collective bargaining agreement prevents teams from trading for more than one player that has signed a rookie scale extension. Kyrie Irving signed such an extension in 2015 before he was traded to the Celtics last summer. He will become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019. Boston has to re-sign him first before it can deal for Davis.
Once they do sign Irving to a new deal as expected, the Celtics are armed with talented young players in Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, and Jaylen Brown. They also own four first-round picks (Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, and their own) in the 2019 NBA Draft, and each of their first-rounders in the ensuing draft classes.
Boston, though, isn’t the only team that can put together an attractive trade offer. Rememeber: James and Davis share Rich Paul as an agent —and what LeBron James wants, he often gets. The Lakers have Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart as enticing young players should Davis become available via trade. They also own each of their first-round picks.
If the Pelicans open themselves to trade offers, anyone can jump in and take a chance on trading for Davis without any promises for an extension.
Paul George desperately wanted to go to Los Angeles, but he was won over by Russell Westbrook and small-market Oklahoma City. The Thunder would be another team that could become a dynasty if Davis chose to form a Big 3. So would the Raptors, who could entice Davis with the prospect of playing with Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry in Toronto. Antetokounmpo and Davis could put the two most dominant players in the NBA on the same team.
And there have been murmurs that the Warriors would try to sell Davis on their culture, too. If some combination of Durant, Klay Thompson, and/or Draymond Green leave in free agency, they could potentially make a run at The Brow.
For that reason, the Pelicans can move him — just like the Pacers moved Paul George— well before the 2020 trade deadline. They would only do so if it became clear he has no intention of accepting the quarter-billion-dollar offer they will make on July 6, 2020 at 12:01 a.m.
The Pelicans might not want to talk about trading Anthony Davis, and they should hold out hope as long as they have the financial trump card. But even though Davis is committed to New Orleans for now, there’s a real chance he walks in free agency two summers from now. If he does, the Pelicans will be left without their best player. Even worse, they’ll be left without any young stars to rebuild around.
The Lakers have three. The Celtics also have three. The Raptors have a bench mob. And other teams will throw their best prospects on the table, too. Those will be options if the time comes to trade Davis.
After Antetokounmpo’s sales pitch, one thing is clear: If New Orleans decides it’s time trade him, they will have no shortage of potential suitors. They might not want to trade him, but doing so could be much better than the alternative.