To have enough cap space to pursue a top free agent, the Nets have to let D’Angelo Russell go. But with the way he’s playing, can they really afford to do that?
BROOKLYN — As Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks addressed local media to speak on the three-year contract extension given to Spencer Dinwiddie, there was an elephant in the room:
What about D’Angelo Russell?
Russell, after all, is playing out of his mind in a contract year. He’s averaging career-highs across the board. He put up 22 points and a career-high 13 assists in a win against the same Lakers team that traded him two summers ago. He is slowly becoming the leader Magic Johnson said he was not, even if his game isn’t perfect.
It’s all just coming at a bit of an awkward time.
The reality of the matter is the Nets can’t do anything this second. The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement prevents teams from offering contract extensions to players on rookie contracts until July 6.
But Russell is entering restricted free agency this summer, and is due a pay raise. This complicates matters for Marks and the Nets’ front office staff because Russell has a $21.1 million cap hold, which directly eats at the team’s cap space to sign a max free agent next summer.
The Nets have positioned themselves to be legitimate players in the loaded 2019 NBA free agency class. Brooklyn could potentially land one of the biggest fish in the open market, including (but not limited to) Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker, Khris Middleton, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. But it will be difficult for them to do that and retain Russell at the same time.
Any one of those max players will command a Year 1 salary of $32.7 million. If the Nets don’t perform the proper cap gymnastics, they will have less than $20 million to sign free agents next summer. To get one, they’d have to renounce Russell’s cap hold, making him an unrestricted free agent.
If they don’t, Brooklyn has first right of refusal on Russell. They can match any contract offer another team makes in free agency, and they can exceed the salary cap to re-sign their point guard. They had no such luxury on Dinwiddie, which is why they locked him into a contract now instead of waiting until July, when the most they could have offered was four years, $47.5 million.
The Dinwiddie contract, though, created a dilemma for Brooklyn moving forward. He’ll be paid $10.6 million next year, and that’s money the Nets could have used to sign a max free agent and retain D’Angelo Russell.
Now, it will be more difficult for them to do both. There are complicated ways they can keep their starting point guard and still sign a max free agent, but it’s possible they’ll have to choose. That mans deciding if Russell is in the cards for the future, and if he believes it.
The NBA knows about this dilemma
Five scouts were in town on the night Russell played one of his best games of the season: two representatives from the Cavaliers, and one each from Sacramento, Minnesota, and Charlotte. A sixth from Denver was supposed to show, but did not sit in their seat.
Were those teams in town to watch Russell, or were they there to size up the talent on a Lakers team expected to be big-time buyers as the Feb. 7 trade deadline approaches? No one knows, but they’re not the only team sending scouts to other games.
Brooklyn sent their head scout to Phoenix for a game earlier in December, Bright Side of the Sun’s Evan Sidery told me. He also told me Nets assistant general manager Trajan Langdon traveled to Los Angeles for the Suns’ game against the Clippers, then followed them to San Antonio the next day for their game against the Spurs.
If Russell were to be traded before the Nets face this contract dilemma, two things are certain: his value is highest now, and the Suns make sense as a trade partner. He and Devin Booker are very good friends, and Phoenix needs a point guard. Booker even praised his friend’s game ahead of a Suns-Nets showdown earlier this season.
“We’ve seen him since Ohio State and all the things that he can do,” Booker told Newsday’s Greg Logan before Phoenix’s 18-point Nov. 6 loss to Brooklyn. “I mean, he has the ‘clutch gene.’ He has the ‘it factor.’
“I would love to play with him,” he continued. “He makes people around him better. He’s a dynamic player. He has the utmost confidence in himself that I don’t think will change ever. That’s why we have the relationship that we do.”
Brooklyn’s contract extension with Dinwiddie does not at all spell an imminent trade for Russell, but it gives the Nets security at the lead guard spot in the event they decide to move him.
While a trade with Phoenix makes the most sense, perhaps in a package involving Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, rookie point guard Elie Okobo, and the Suns’ 2019 second-rounder in return, there are other options. Brooklyn could engage Orlando, a team that could use a pick-and-roll savvy point guard, and ask for Terrence Ross or Jonathon Simmons back. If the Bulls don’t believe they have their point guard of the future, Russell and Kenneth Faried for Jabari Parker, Kris Dunn, and draft compensation may be viable.
The Nets could also trade someone else to create the cap space to sign their star point guard to an extension this summer and also chase a max free agent. One way is to package Allen Crabbe and Denver’s first-round pick to Sacramento, who has extra space to absorb Crabbe’s contract while matching less salary. They could also send Crabbe to Chicago in a deal for Parker. Or, they could move Crabbe and/or anyone else under contract for 2019-20 in the summer, when more teams have space.
Absent a trade, the Nets must make a tough decision. It’s hard to see Russell accepting a below-market contract offer or his qualifying offer, even if it allows him to become a free agent again sooner. Russell would be smartest to collect the most money he could, no matter where it comes from.
That leaves just one call: either keep Russell and pass on signing a max-level free agent, or go after that free agent and let Russell walk to another team in free agency.
Can the Nets really let a talent like Russell walk?
The Nets have made incremental progress since the Markinson era began in 2016, but the barometer of team success ultimately falls in the win column. At this moment, Brooklyn is finding ways to win games with both Russell and Dinwiddie leading the charge.
The numbers might say Dinwiddie and Russell don’t play well with each other, but the win column does. Brooklyn has won six in a row, and their best player, Caris LeVert, could be returning from a freak ankle injury before the season is over.
Russell’s restricted free agency does makes things tricky heading into the summer, because the Nets could use an upgrade at any position on the roster. At the same time, they’re showing they can compete with what they have, and ultimately top free agents want to go somewhere that’s already building, not a roster bulldozed to rubble.
“You’ve got to make sure the organization lines up with where you are at that point in your career,” once-coveted max free agent Tyson Chandler told reporters pregame on Wednesday.
That’s why the Nets’ Russell decision a crucial fork in the road. It will determine whether Brooklyn’s efforts to restore a healthy culture has successfully turned this city into an attractive free agency destination. If maneuvered correctly, this summer could land the Nets a marquee free agent, a mid-level player, and at least one promising young rookie. Maybe that marquee free agent is Russell.
If Marks and his front office staff find a creative solution, they can add all three of those players and retain Russell at the same time. More likely, though, they’ll either chase the max free agent and forget about Russell, or go all-in on Russell and a future with him, Dinwiddie and LeVert, but no max-level star.
Brooklyn knows all these options. The question is, which one will they choose? Russell’s emergence only makes that decision more difficult.