It looks like a two-man race between Brees and Mahomes, but there’s still time for veterans to crash the party.
Week 14 was a brutal week for MVP candidates.
The herd of potential honorees was culled significantly Sunday, and even the guys at the top of the list — with the exception of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes — could find something to complain about in an uneven week. Drew Brees got revenge on the Buccaneers, but threw 201 yards or fewer for the third straight week. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley had their worst performances of the season as the Rams juggernaut offense sputtered to just six points in a loss to the Bears. Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger both suffered embarrassing defeats of their own.
And then there’s Mahomes, who showed off the clutch playmaking and insane athleticism that’s returned him to the top of the MVP pile in 2018.
The roll out.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 10, 2018
The throw.
The catch.
Let's watch it a couple hundred times more... pic.twitter.com/ETPRXXQTdO
That’s the second-year quarterback making a play few quarterbacks in league history could make to save a game against the Ravens and earn Kansas City a playoff spot for the fourth straight season. In a season filled with tremendous passing performances, Mahomes has consistently stood out while piloting the league’s top offense. If he can stay the course for three more weeks, the MVP award is his — but he’ll still have to fend off some veteran competition as 2018 winds to a close.
Current 2018 NFL MVP odds
A lot of names on this list are either people we’d like to see win it and/or truly deserving names, but we all know that only goes so far when it comes to the actual voters this spring. So before we dig into a closer look at the candidates, let’s make a quick scan of the odds.
These are the four remaining players getting odds from BetOnline.ag, and were last updated prior to Week 15.
- Patrick Mahomes: -150
- Drew Brees: +110
- Philip Rivers: +1600
- Aaron Donald: +5000
Now, let’s take a deeper look at the candidates — starting with the man at the top of the odds sheet after Week 14.
The Chiefs’ second-year star: Patrick Mahomes, QB
Mahomes pushed his team from the brink of defeat to an overtime win that should effectively clinch the top seed in the AFC this postseason. His second game-winning drive of the season — the other came in Week 4 against the Broncos, and he’s only trailed in the fourth quarter twice since then — was a beauty, covering 85 yards after penalties and showcasing Mahomes’ blend of vision, mobility, and arm strength in the clip above.
He finished his day with 377 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. And, amazingly, that was his third-worst performance of the season. He’s still on pace for 53 touchdowns and nearly 5,300 passing yards. That’s insanity, and if he can avoid the fatigue that often accompanies December, he might be able to hold off the field no matter how the rest of the league finishes the 2018 season.
The Saints’ venerable veteran: Drew Brees, QB
In his first showdown against the Buccaneers, Brees threw for 439 yards and three touchdowns, but also suffered what was, in retrospect, one of 2018’s most surprising defeats. On Sunday he avenged that loss by rallying New Orleans to a 28-14 win over its NFC South rival, but wasn’t especially impressive in the process.
Brees threw for only 201 yards, capping a three-week stretch where he’s thrown for 499 yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, and just 6.2 yards per pass. His 95.7 passer rating is totally reasonable ...it’s just not MVP caliber. He’s still completing a career- and league-high 75.8 percent of his passes and is on pace to record the third-highest passer rating (120.8) in NFL history. Brees is having the best year of his career — but Mahomes is having a transcendent one.
The man who may finally lead the Chargers to the promised land: Philip Rivers, QB
Rivers played the Bengals, and even without either of his top two running backs for much of the day, still managed to beat Cincinnati while throwing for only 220 yards and a touchdown. That won’t help his case from a statistical standpoint, but the veteran quarterback is the leading man for the AFC’s second-best team. If he can wrangle his way to a win against Mahomes and the Chiefs on Thursday night — where it looks like he’ll be without Melvin Gordon or Austin Ekeler again— he’ll cover some of the gap between him and his AFC West passing rival.
The Rams who threaten to cancel each other out: Jared Goff, QB; Aaron Donald, DT
Todd Gurley dropped off the list of candidates this week after gaining just 58 total yards against the Bears’ swarming defense. Tailbacks typically need record-setting seasons to earn MVP consideration and Gurley, while leading the league in total yards, is on pace for only eight more yards from scrimmage in 2018 than he had in 2017. That’s still great, but it’s not going to be enough to steal votes from this year’s absurd quarterback crop.
Donald still has a chance to crash the proceedings, even after the Bears held him sack-less for the second time since Week 3. He needs six sacks to tie Michael Strahan’s sorta-bullshit single-season record. That would be a tall task for most players, but Donald’s had 6+ sacks in two different three-game stretches this season. That still might not be enough to distract voters from Mahomes’ ability to turn the NFL into the Big 12, but he can’t be counted out just yet.
First of many pic.twitter.com/0oEBvNWh33
— Quan (@RoquanSmith1) December 10, 2018
Goff also avoided the chopping block this week, but his horrible, very bad Sunday night performance took a blackjack to the kneecaps of his once robust MVP chances. He needed 44 passes to throw for 180 yards and threw interceptions to four different Chicago defenders — including the hideous heave to Roquan Smith above. If he’d thrown every pass into the stands at Soldier Field that night, he would have finished his day with a passer rating twice as high as his 19.1 mark.
The man tasked with throwing the Steelers to an AFC North title: Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Roethlisberger missed a chunk of Sunday’s game against the Raiders, and in doing so inadvertently proved his value to Pittsburgh. The Steelers scored zero points and gained just 64 total yards across four drives led by Joshua Dobbs, the backup quarterback head coach Mike Tomlin had relied on to give his veteran starter some extra rest against a cupcake opponent. But Roethlisberger’s absence turned out to be too much to overcome in a three-point loss to a team that was 2-10 coming into Week 14.
Roethlisberger was excellent whilst on the field, completing 25 of 29 passes for 282 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also threw the hook-and-lateral pass that gave the Steelers a chance to send the game into overtime with a 40-yard field goal at the end of regulation. Instead, Chris Boswell missed the kick and Pittsburgh’s spiral continued — possibly flushing Roethlisberger’s slim MVP hopes with it.
The Patriots’ old standby: Tom Brady, QB
New England lost in spectacular fashion against the Dolphins, but it’s tough to lay the blame of the Miami Miracle at Brady’s feet. The 41-year-old had arguably his best game of the year, throwing for a season-high 358 yards and three touchdowns without turning the ball over. But he’s still slightly worse this fall than he was last year, when he topped a weak field to earn his second career MVP award.
He probably won’t be MVP this year, but I’m not going to be the one to count out Touchdown Tom.
The man who refuses to let the Seahawks tank: Russell Wilson, QB
Wilson remains on the list because his Seahawks won and finally got some much-needed national recognition on Monday night. But that exposure came at the worst possible time for Wilson, who had what was statistically the worst game of his career against the Vikings. Not only did he fail to find the end zone while recording his fewest passing yards ever (72), he also gave new life to the idea he’s cursed at the goal line.
Russell Wilson tries to throw it away but @EricKendricks54 is there to pick it off! #SKOL
— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2018
: #MINvsSEA on ESPN pic.twitter.com/2ciDbzoqVN
Still, the Seahawks are good when they shouldn’t be, and Wilson’s a major reason why. He stays in the race another week.
The Texans’ second-year stud: Deshaun Watson, QB
Watson had 302 total yards and a touchdown against the Colts. It wasn’t enough to keep the Texans’ nine-game winning streak alive, but it continued the second-year passer’s newfound trend of protecting the ball while taking fewer risks downfield. He’s nearly cut his interception rate in half (3.9% to 2.2%) while upping his completion rate from 61.8 to 66.9. Watson is an unlikely MVP candidate this fall, but his growth in 2018 will put him on the short list of favorites for the award next preseason.