Entering a bowl pool? Allow us to help you out a bit.

Below are FBS picks and projections for every game of the 2018-19 bowl season using the S&P+ projections, listed in full for all 130 FBS teams here.

See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. The team in bold is projected to beat the spread. When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I list the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. This year, I have included and monitored total (over/under) picks as well. NOTE: this post has been updated to include shifts since the initial lines were released.In a few instances, shifts in the lines have resulted in a change in the official S&P+ against-the-spread pick.

College Football Playoff semifinals

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• Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Clemson 30, No. 3 Notre Dame (+11.5) 22 (Dec. 29, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Orange Bowl: No. 1 Alabama 40, No. 4 Oklahoma (+14) 33 (Dec. 29, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

S&P+ has had Alabama at No. 1 since the second week of the season, but it’s still underestimated the Crimson Tide for most of the year. So has Vegas — in FBS games, the Tide went 8-3 against the spread until Saturday’s escape against Georgia.

S&P+ and Vegas are at a crossroads in this one, though. S&P+ loves Oklahoma’s offense enough to give the Sooners a good shot at staying within a touchdown and a 27 percent chance of winning overall. Vegas thinks the Tide win by a healthy two-touchdown margin.

It’s a similar story in the other game. Despite the fact that Notre Dame is weighed down by a couple of mediocre early-season performances that happened before Ian Book took over as starting quarterback, S&P+ sees Clemson as only about an eight-point favorite, a few points more underdog-friendly than Vegas. We’ll see which way the lines swing over time.

Before Christmas

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• Cure Bowl: UL-Lafayette (+3.5) 31, Tulane 29 (Dec. 15, 1:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
• New Mexico Bowl: Utah State 31, North Texas (+8) 28 (Dec. 15, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This line has moved a couple of points toward North Texas since the initial lines came out, but S&P+ still likes the Mean Green more than Vegas does.

• Las Vegas Bowl: No. 21 Fresno State (-3.5) 35, Arizona State 22 (Dec. 15, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

We overreact to bowls as a general rule, but this one is big for the Group of Five — Fresno State is a top-10 team per S&P+, and Arizona State is outside the top 50. You never know about who’s motivated for bowls and who isn’t, but this is a game that the Fresno State of the second half of the season should handle with relative ease.

• Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern 28, Eastern Michigan (+1.5) 27 (Dec. 15, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This line has moved significantly, from EMU -1.5 to GS -1.5. That means the initial S&P+ pick has flipped as well.

• New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State (-7) 32, Middle Tennessee 19 (Dec. 15, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Boca Raton Bowl: UAB 23, Northern Illinois (+2.5) 21 (Dec. 18, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Here’s another game in which the pick has flipped. It started out as UAB -1 but has shifted enough toward the Blazers to shift S&P+’s allegiances.

• Frisco Bowl: San Diego State (+3) 31, Ohio 30 (Dec. 19, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This game has gone from Ohio -1 to Ohio -3, and honestly, I’m not entirely sure why.

• Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall 25, USF (+2.5) 24 (Dec. 20, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This line has shifted significantly, from USF -2 to Marshall -2.5. That makes things a bit dicey for S&P+: if you apply the customary 2.5-point home-field advantage for USF (the game is being played in Raymond James Stadium), Marshall is a projected winner by just one point, and USF is projected to cover. If projected as a neutral-field game, Marshall covers.

• Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (-6) 35.2, Florida International 28.7 (Dec. 21, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Idaho Potato Bowl: BYU 34, Western Michigan (+13) 25 (Dec. 21, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (-5) 39, Wake Forest 27 (Dec. 22, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Man, this one could be fun. Wake Forest was scattershot in 2018 but averaged 45 points per game in its wins (and only 20 in its losses), and Memphis was happy to turn any game into a track meet.

• Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (+3) 37, Army 29 (Dec. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This line has shifted from Houston -2 to Army -3, which makes sense considering Houston’s Ed Oliver and D’Eriq King are both out. S&P+ remains steadfast in its distrust of Army, however.

• Dollar General Bowl: Troy (+2.5) 29, Buffalo 27 (Dec. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (+1) 31, Hawaii 29 (Dec. 22, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Dec. 26-30

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• First Responder Bowl: No. 25 Boise State (-3) 32, Boston College 23 (Dec. 26, 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota (+4) 31, Georgia Tech 29 (Dec. 26, 5:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Cheez-It Bowl: TCU (+0) 21, California 20 (Dec. 26, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Independence Bowl: Temple (-4) 29, Duke 23 (Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Pinstripe Bowl: Miami 27.2, Wisconsin (+4) 26.5 (Dec. 27, 5:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Really not sure why Miami is such a heavy favorite here. S&P+ has liked Miami more than the eyeballs have all year, and it even sees a tossup here.

• Texas Bowl: Vanderbilt 32, Baylor (+3.5) 29 (Dec. 27, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Here’s another game that has flipped since the initial line came out. It opened at Vandy -1 but has now shifted just past where S&P+ sees the game — S&P+ sees a 3.3-point Vandy win on average, and the line’s now at Vandy -3.5.

• Music City Bowl: Auburn (-4) 32, Purdue 26 (Dec. 28, 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Camping World Bowl: No. 16 West Virginia (-1.5) 36, No. 20 Syracuse 30 (Dec. 28, 5:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Your first ranked-versus-ranked battle of bowl season could be a doozy, and Vegas agrees — the line has shifted from WVU -7 to WVU -1.5 with the announcement that WVU quarterback Will Grier isn’t playing.

• Alamo Bowl: No. 13 Washington State (-3.5) 32, No. 24 Iowa State 25 (Dec. 28, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Peach Bowl: No. 7 Michigan (-6) 30, No. 10 Florida (+7.5) 24 (Dec. 29, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Another game where the line has flipped the pick.

Seriously, though: we had a shot at the first ever Michigan-LSU game and an intrastate Florida-UCF battle in New Year’s Six bowls, and instead we ended up with the one matchup nobody — not even Michigan or Florida fans — wanted to see. Boo.

• Belk Bowl: South Carolina 30, Virginia (+4) 27 (Dec. 29, 12 p.m. ET, ABC)
• Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State (-1.5) 32, Nevada 27 (Dec. 29, 1:15 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

Don’t want to watch Michigan-Florida or SC-UVA? There’s a potential thriller going on on CBS Sports Network at nearly the same time. (What the heck kind of scheduling is this?)

Dec. 31-Jan. 1

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• Military Bowl: Cincinnati (-5) 31, Virginia Tech 23 (Dec. 31, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Sun Bowl: Stanford (-6.5) 35, Pitt 25 (Dec. 31, 2 p.m. ET, CBS)
• Redbox Bowl: Michigan State (+3) 26, Oregon 24 (Dec. 31, 3 p.m. ET, Fox)
• Liberty Bowl: No. 23 Missouri 35, Oklahoma State (+8) 31 (Dec. 31, 3:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)

OSU ranks 10th in Off. S&P+ and 84th in Def. S&P+; the Cowboys averaged 48 points per game in wins and allowed 39 points per game in losses. Someone’s scoring a lot of points in this one.

• Holiday Bowl: No. 17 Utah (-7.5) 32, No. 22 Northwestern 17 (Dec. 31, 7 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Gator Bowl: No. 19 Texas A&M 32, NC State (+5) 29 (Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• Outback Bowl: No. 18 Mississippi State 26, Iowa (+7) 21 (Jan. 1, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
• Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 UCF (+7.5) 31, No. 11 LSU 26 (Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN)

IMPORTANT NOTE: these picks are based on full-season ratings and therefore only slightly take into account the injury to UCF’s McKenzie Milton. His replacement, Darriel Mack Jr., has been mostly great thus far, but that still makes this projection awfully tenuous.

• Citrus Bowl: No. 12 Penn State (-6.5) 28, No. 14 Kentucky 19 (Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET, ABC)

Not going to lie: I’ll be surprised if this one reaches 47 total points. Kentucky’s got nothing to offer offensively that PSU hasn’t seen plenty of in the Big Ten, and the Nittany Lions might be perfectly happy keeping their offense in third-gear grind mode.

• Rose Bowl: No. 6 Ohio State 30, No. 9 Washington (+6.5) 27 (Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN)

There’s some fun tension in this one — Washington is good at turning any game into a defensive slog, and Ohio State’s good at giving anyone enough big plays to make things exciting. Something’s! Got! To give!

• Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Georgia (-12) 40, Texas 22 (Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big 12 Championship aside, Tom Herman teams are generally very good as an underdog; that’s really the only reason to think this one ends up close. (Man, I don’t like these NY6 matchups very much.)

Each year, I post weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own.

Beyond picks, though, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)