13 realistic 2018 NFL MVP candidates

Is Drew Brees finally going to claim his place among the immortals?

Week 12 saw the Rams and Chiefs take to the sidelines for a well deserved bye week after last week’s instant classic on Monday night. That gave the rest of the league’s MVP candidates an opportunity to make their mark on the league.

Drew Brees used a Thanksgiving night showcase to sling four touchdown passes. Russell Wilson continued to prove the Seahawks aren’t rebuilding by rallying Seattle and knocking an opponent out of the NFC playoff race for the second straight week. Philip Rivers completed 25 straight passes to kick off a dominant win over the Cardinals.

But it wasn’t all good. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 462 yards and was, statistically, the Steelers’ second-most efficient passer. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers took another step toward making last year’s playoff-less January a streak. Matt Ryan joined the fray with a monster performance but spent 33+ minutes of his Thanksgiving trailing the Saints by 14 points or more.

The week added a little more intrigue to what once looked like an open and shut case for Patrick Mahomes. Here’s how the 12 men left standing in the race shake out with five weeks to play.

2018 NFL MVP odds

A lot of names on this list are either people we’d like to see win it and/or truly deserving names, but we all know that only goes so far when it comes to the actual voters this spring. So before we dig into a closer look at the candidates, let’s make a quick scan of the odds.

These are the top 10 from OddsShark, and were last updated prior to Week 13.

Drew Brees: -400
Patrick Mahomes: +250
Andrew Luck: +1400
Philip Rivers: +2500
Jared Goff: +2800
Todd Gurley: +2800
Ben Roethlisberger: +4000
Tom Brady: +4000

Meet the MVP candidates

Now, let’s look at the candidates — starting with a pair of playmakers from one of the league’s top teams.

The Saints

Drew Brees, QB, Saints

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

New Orleans’ fell victim to the same curse as the rest of the league’s Thanksgiving day participants — the Saints got stuck in an entirely uninteresting divisional game. But unlike Bears-Lions and Washington-Cowboys, Thursday’s late game featured a handful of MVP candidates who provided a bit more incentive to watch.

Brees had his second-lowest passing output of the year, but still threw four touchdown passes as the Saints cruised to a 14-point victory that should pretty much extinguish the Falcons’ playoff hopes. Kamara fell into a similarly un-prolific track, gaining 98 total yards on 15 touches (14 rushes, 1 reception).

While Kamara is close to sliding off the MVP list — this year’s quarterback play is just too prolific — Brees is quickly becoming a heavy favorite. He’s the biggest standout on the league’s top team and both on pace for a historically great season even by his own lofty standard. Only a catastrophe could keep him out of the running over the final five weeks of the season.

The Rams’ three-headed monster

Jared Goff, QB, Rams

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

Aaron Donald, DT, Rams

The Rams had a full week to bask in the afterglow of their record-setting 54-51 win over the Chiefs. The rest of the league had a chance to catch up to LA in Week 12, but Gurley still leads the NFL in total yards from scrimmage and touchdowns scored. Donald still leads the league in sacks. Goff is still a top four quarterback when it comes to passing yards, passing touchdowns, and yards per attempt.

When Arthur C. Clarke wrote “My god. It’s full of stars,” he may have been predicting the rise of the Rams.

The young gunslinger

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Mahomes had the week off. He’s still leading the league in touchdown passes and is throwing for nearly 330 yards per game to pace the AFC’s top offense. He’ll get three more opportunity to prove himself — games against the playoff hopeful Ravens, Chargers, and Seahawks are sandwiched between layups against the obviously tanking Raiders.

The older gunslingers

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

Seattle was supposed to be rebuilding in 2018. Wilson has made that impossible. The 2013 Super Bowl champion has been a playmaking godsend, pairing with a resurgent rushing attack to give the Seahawks a clutch offense that’s much better on the field than it looks on paper.

On Sunday, Wilson rallied his club twice to turn a seven-point deficit with four minutes to play into a three-point road win in Carolina. His biggest play came on a fourth-and-three bomb to David Moore— a touchdown that would later set up his third game-winning drive in 11 2018 games.

Ryan makes the list even while his Falcons slide to the periphery of the playoff race thanks to an exceptional season behind center. He threw for 377 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a losing effort against the Saints on Thanksgiving, giving him the league lead in passing yards in the process. He’s currently on pace to set career bests in completion rate (71.4%), passing yards (5,357), and interception rate (1.2%).

Ryan’s got a chance to be even better than he was in 2016’s MVP season. And he may not even garner a vote when the season-end awards are announced.

Luck has dragged a rebuilding Colts team up from a 1-5 start to a spot in the playoff race by returning to his 2015 form. He’s thrown three touchdown passes or more in each of his last eight games, but also has beaten just one team with a winning record (6-5 Washington) this fall. Still, he’s helped Eric Ebron reach his potential and turned a deficient roster into a postseason contender, two major accomplishments that deserve recognition.

The oldest gunslingers

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

Roethlisberger threw away Pittsburgh’s comeback chances with an awful goal line interception late in a 24-17 loss to the Broncos:

While his two interceptions were costly, he still proved to be the engine behind the Steeler offense with 462 passing yards.

Brady was quietly efficient against the Jets, throwing a pair of touchdowns without an interception and staying upright throughout a zero-interception day. He’s trailing behind his 2017 MVP numbers, but he’s still

a) pretty good, and
b) Tom Brady

so he’ll remain in the running until he regresses into late-stage Peyton Manning. This could happen either next week or sometime in 2032.

Then there’s Rivers, who picked apart an efficient Arizona passing defense en route to a record-setting start in Los Angeles. He started his day with 25 straight completions, turning a 10-0 deficit into a 45-10 win in the process.

He ended the day with a 28-29 passing line, 283 yards, and three touchdowns. He’s in the middle of, statistically, the best season of his career in a year where he’s about to turn 37 years old. A lot will have to break his way with Mahomes and Brees ahead of him, but Rivers should receive MVP votes if he can pilot the Chargers to their first playoff berth since 2013.

The comeback kid

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

Watson demolished the Titans to give Houston a two-game lead in the AFC South with five games to play — an astonishing number considering the club’s 0-3 start. Not only did he carve up the Titans’ rebuilt secondary for 210 yards and two touchdowns (on just 24 passes), but he also ran for 70 more yards and a score, putting together his best rushing performance since suffering a torn ACL last fall.

Watson has pushed himself back to the level that made him one of the league’s most exciting rookies in 2017. A little more growth will ensure the Texans’ a spot in the postseason — and keep Watson in the MVP race through the end of the season.

The guys who fell off the list (for now)

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

Khalil Mack, DE, Bears

Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers