The early betting lines often allow for the most value.
All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record ATS: 146-121 (55%) (+1305)
Last week I went 11-13. I beat the closing line consistently, but the bounces didn’t go my way. My main goal is to beat the closing line in a meaningful way, and the wins follow.
I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less. Bet Online and Bookmaker usually have the first odds up, around 3:30 each Sunday.
This week, they didn’t come out until after 5:30. My assumption is that the huge amount of college basketball has the oddsmakers occupied.
Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.
Pick(s) made Saturday, November 24.
- Florida at Florida State +7.5: This line has moved too much so I am middling back.
Pick(s) made Friday, November 23.
I hope everyone had a wonder Thanksgiving. Most of the wagers I made have trended to me over the week. I am now four points up on my EMU bet, one on Iowa, two on UCF, five on Oregon, one on Memphis, one on Oklahoma, and one on Washington. My goal is to beat the closing line a lot more often than it beats me, and so far, so good here.
- East Carolina at Cincinnati Over 50 (Friday):The weather in Cincinnati will be cold, but there is a zero percent chance of precipitation, which was my main concern with this.
- Akron +24 at Ohio: 24 is the number which triggers a wager for me, and I waited all week for it to creep there. Akron has been on a slide, while Ohio has had a strong month overall, but 24 is a lot.
Picks made Sunday, November 18
- Eastern Michigan -9.5 at Kent State (Friday game): Eastern Michigan can get stops. KSU cannot. Combine that with some KSU tempo, and that spells blowout.
- Nebraska at Iowa -7 (Friday): Iowa has an excellent defense and should be able to hold the Huskers in check.
- UCF -12 at South Florida (Friday): USF has sort of fallen apart over the last month. I think the Knights can score 50 here.
- Oregon -14 at Oregon State (Friday): Oregon State’s defense should be a welcome relief for the Ducks’ offense.
- Houston at Memphis -6.5 (Friday): I do not think the Cougars can keep up with Memphis.
- Oklahoma -2 at West Virginia (Friday): The Sooners at anything better than a field goal is a play for me.
- Washington +3.5 (-105) at Washington State (Friday): The Huskies might be the better team, and are certainly a better play at over a field goal.
- Coastal Carolina -1.5 at South Alabama (Friday): Coastal at under a field goal feels too light to me.
- Pitt at Miami -4.5: Miami’s defense is the best unit on the field in this one, even if the home field crowd should be very bad.
- Louisiana Lafayette +4 at Louisiana Monroe: Anything over a field goal here feels like too much for two closely-matched teams.
- North Texas -20 at Texas San Antonio: NT has scored 41, 31, and 41 in its last three games, and it could get to 50 here.
- Notre Dame -8 at USC: There is no conference title game to look ahead to. USC is in complete disarray. The Irish should be able to win by 20.
- Maryland at Penn State -12.5: I am playing PSU at anything under two touchdowns. Maryland giving Ohio State a scare last weekend creates some value here.
- Troy at Appalachian State -10: Troy has had trouble scoring in recent weeks. I can’t see them keeping this under two touchdowns.
- Florida -3 at FSU: This just feels light, and I think it will end up closer to a TD than a field goal.
- Stanford -5.5 at UCLA: The Cardinal are catching UCLA in a major hangover spot.
That is a huge number of favorites. I rarely play many favorites. Weird.
What do you like this week?